Beyond Math Odds - Energy crunch realized
It is going to be painful
I hope everyone had a good couple of days without my sometimes depressing e-mails. For those worried, my mother is recovering fast and is fine.
This article is a continuation of the one below, and basically a lot of the forecasts from weeks to months ago, are coming to pass.
As I wrote months ago, when the global situation deteriorated enough, and countries became strapped for different types of resources, they would absolutely resort to curbing or prohibiting exports of crucial materials or food to secure their own stability.
Australian authorities have given themselves the power to block coal exports if the resource is needed to ease the country’s crippling power crisis in the latest measure taken to avert the risk of blackouts.
Rising coal and gas prices, coupled with outages at ageing coal-fired power stations, have plunged the market into turmoil this week, forcing the Australian Energy Market Operator to take control of the wholesale market to ensure reliable supply of electricity to eastern states.
Of course, this isn’t merely the outcome of chaotic market dynamics and supply chain issues, it is of their own making, Australian politicians and their elites, very friendly towards the WEF folk are the ones to blame for a lot of it, and their green policies insanity. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are the major importers of Australian coal.
The entire media, anywhere around the globe are the same and will distort the reality of their rhetoric and choices toward pushing their Green insanity and this article by the FT is no different. I wish this was the end of today's article…
Russia pressures Europe by slashing its natural gas supply
Europe is trying to reduce its dependence on Russian gas but the supply cuts could create an energy crisis in coming months.
Russia has slashed the flow of natural gas to Europe in a move European leaders called a clear attempt to strike back at Western countries for their support of Ukraine.
Russia on Friday reduced natural gas deliveries by half to Italy and Slovakia and cut off France entirely, marking a third consecutive day of gas reductions in a growing economic confrontation between Moscow and the West. Moscow had previously cut off all natural gas flow to Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, the Netherlands and Denmark.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union joined the U.S. in imposing sweeping financial sanctions on Russia. But European governments have been bracing for economic retaliation from the Kremlin and officials portrayed this week’s squeeze on natural gas supplies as an effort by Moscow to exert political pressure and push energy prices up.
I would like to remind you about the Freeport LNG fire, which now has extended their timeline to resume operations to the year’s end, an decision obviously horrible for Europe. Most of the LNG exported to Europe goes from this port alone, and unlike any other type of fuel, LNG is fairly high tech, and you can simple up and change locations. Promptly Russia did the following move.
Anyone with even a shred of common sense left would be able to forecast this one, Russia who has slowly responding to the sanctions of the West, would do this at a time where it would send a very very powerful message. Before the European Winter.
And per my first posts, the decisions of some countries to rush into a Green tech while there were massive cascading events, and clear signs the energy markets were in for a hell of a ride (China was the canary in the mine later last year), they insist “everything would be fine”.
France now pays the price for rushing to turn off its nuclear plants, and when they thought about turning them back on, it was found out they would need maintenance that will last months.
The cost of electricity in France jumped, adding to Europe’s gas woes, as depressed nuclear output squeezes the market.
France’s nuclear reactors are operating at less than half their full capacity and this week have produced the least electricity at this time of year since at least 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
France is fairly important for the energy sector in the entire EU. What happens in France, cascades into the energy markets in the European continent, and as I said many times before, when every other type of fuel gets squeezed and expensive, both for shortages of parts to raise production and by demand, countries would resort to coal.
I will not be surprised if, by fate or my political stupidity, some European countries resort to burning their own forest for very dirty, very energy-poor, cheap coal. This is of course one of the absolute worst-case scenarios. One of these would be Germany.
Germany’s Top Regulator Urges Consumers to Save Gas as Cuts Loom
Germany’s top energy regulator urged consumers and industry to scale back natural-gas consumption to help fill storage sites ahead of the next heating season after Russia curtailed deliveries.
“The current reductions of Russian gas deliveries can put all of us -- consumers as well as industry -- in a very serious situation,” Klaus Mueller, who heads the Bundesnetzagentur agency, wrote on Twitter. “As long as we can, we must avoid this through gas savings and -storage.”
Germany might be the first to ration energy at a national level, but by no means it will be last. Being heavily dependent on Russian everything was a very stupid decision, especially when it is the elites from Germany that are pushing this collapse.
If you have been reading my Beyond Mathematical Odds series, it should be clear the situation in Germany was anything, but assured. I have many articles covering all aspects of this, from fairly recent to older ones. In 5th gen warfare, shadow and hybrid war are the rules, not merely tools.
At least unlike when I started this whole series of articles, it is not only Russia and China playing, countries now are catching up to it.
If you want to understand why I criticize the European elites so much, so often, and the EU, here, read this article titled EU LAWMAKERS RESIST LABELLING NATURAL GAS AS GREEN, of course, very early on my Substack, I forecasted this (they would attempt to label gas and try to shove nuclear in with it as green fuels. While guilt-ridden white people plot their own collapse, clearer minds are using it as hybrid war tactic.
At times, when it hurt the West at the most painful moments, they will stick to their “carbon goals”, but when it threatens their own stability, China will say “fuck it”.
At the end of 2021, authorities in the northern Chinese province of Shanxi fined one of China’s biggest coal companies for illegally mining at more than 50 sites.
Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry had flouted strict production limits, introduced following a series of mining accidents across the country. In one month, Jinneng dug up 400 percent more coal at one mine than had been permitted.
But the fine did little to dent Jinneng’s growth. The group produced 380 million tons of coal in 2021, making it the second largest coal producer in China. And the public rebuke from Shanxi’s safety regulators did not stop the provincial government from giving Jinneng the green light to ramp up coal production.
More broadly, China’s decarbonisation drive has hit a roadblock after the delicate balance between economic growth and environmental protection has started to tip in favor of fossil fuel-powered infrastructure stimulus, following the country’s bruising coronavirus lockdowns—though these have also contributed to a (probably temporary) fall in carbon emissions since mid-2021.
Asia (especially China) is turning into coal not solely because of their massive domestic production (they are still massive importers), but also because of the LNG Freeport fire. The fire will affect the already heavily constrained and disputed fuel, and while China can outbid most of the other poorer countries in Asia, it will have to compete with Europe for the spot (short-term, soon-to-be delivered) cargos.
Asian liquefied natural gas buyers are ratcheting up competition with Europe to secure spare supply as a series of outages threatens a shortage this winter.
A new timeline presented on Tuesday to restart a key US liquefied natural gas export plant was much longer than traders had anticipated, while lower deliveries from Indonesia to Russia tightened global supply. Asian LNG futures for winter delivery surged to the highest level in over two months.
Of course, this would bode well for the domestic energy market of the US, if things were going well. But the insanity of the Biden Administration must go on, and closing important plants, ignoring warnings from federal energy agencies, and Mother Nature ain’t helping no one lately.
Different dynamics, a little bit of similar political decisions, in a somewhat better spot, but I still wouldn’t bet on competence or the goodwill of Mother Nature to help you out. At this point into the cascade events we have been living through for the last 2 years, incompetence, ignorance and a little bit of malice goes a long way.
Brazil is also in a rough spot when it comes to fuel. Another hike in fuel prices infuriates both politicians and the population, which is already expending roughly 33% of their salaries on fuel costs. Not only the economy can’t cope with such rates, but it will trickle down into the cost of everything else, which is already fairly expensive by any standard. Real inflation in Brazil is close to 150%, the government has had a talent for lying about inflation costs since Brazil superinflation woes back in the early 90’s.
One angle I decided to leave for last, since it is related to energy, and green policies but not directly was this one.
I have warned most for a fairly long time, and I was not alone, others did it too. By hook or by crook, they will find a way to lockdown the first world again, and send their economies (and us third worlders) into oblivion. I guess this is a sacrifice the elites are willing to do. Us dying.
So was the point of this article just to keep you informed, or to gloat I am right ? No. Firstly.
It was to remind you, especially if you are European, to go out and buy an alternative energy source, a propane tank, solar panels, anything to keep you going, and especially to keep you warm coming winter. Do I expect/forecast things to go south so bad, so fast that the entirety of Europe freezes to death ? No. But I am also a massive cynic when it comes to expecting any clean, straight, beneficial to the populace decision from politicians, and elites are outright hostile against us, the pleb.
If you are American, while the situation is mildly better, I would do the same if you are able to afford it, but it is region dependent, some places in the US don’t get “freezing to death” cold, but still, given the reliance on energy for almost everything, if possible I would look for something reliable.
When it becomes really apparent that there is a continuous degradation of the energy generation, I expect everything to do with backup power generation to get sold out, and the waiting times for a lot of these are becoming massive, months usually.
Also, since I touched on hybrid war, THIS JUST IN.
That is one of Russia’s biggest natural gas fields, and we are clearly into full hybrid war now, tit for tat. Freeport for Urengoy. As I wrote in the very first BMO, I expect things to escalate at an accelerating pace as the chickens find themselves without a head.
How long until “weird, uncommon, not organic” protests start popping up in the First World ? (Legitimate question, answer in the comments).
Per what Alexandre Cortez said on my Twitter page. The coming winter will be brutal (In the US/EU/Asia)
I wish you all a nice weekend.
Deep appreciation for all the supporters!
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Biden is a puppet. The question is, who is the order giver? Obama is just the middle man. John Paul what is your guess? This green energy push all at once all over is totally malice..not incomptence . How many of us will die? At a guess?
If I don't get my house sold soon, I plan to rely on propane. That price is so far holding steady, although I expect increased delivery costs to appear soon.
Saving the heating oil for below zero weather. It rook a month's social security check to fill it in May. Hoping to not touch it until January!
Not worried about frozen foods in winter. Deep chest freezer can hold for a long time, & unheated sunroom or a snowbank will keep food all winter. I saved a freezerful in an April snowbank during one storm outtage!
Maybe I'll empty it & move it out there.