First and foremost, Goldman veteran article is not only interesting, but me being smug and smirking, because, if the reader takes a couple of hours to read all my other posts, you will find that I have been talking about this same issue for months. I am glad “the experts” are catching up. Also, it is another marker/signal.
As I warned many times, both in any post with Green on it’s title or a bunch of Daily Briefings and other ones, countries won’t collapse themselves even if their virtue signaling elites pressure them. While France insists on turning it’s own nuclear plants, they would go back and find another way, either gas or most likely, coal.
Also another point I have raised a few times before, countries might start subsiding their energy costs, because no complex system can survive the EROI equation, which will affect their economy more. It’s a hard loop to get out.
I recently shared an article ( last one in this post, about protein insecurity) about energy, and food costs and civil unrest, something I have talked about, here is another good article about it, read the entire thing but here a screenshot.
To bring the point I have been saying for weeks, lower yield in crops the last few months almost everywhere, high energy costs, China buying literally half of the world’s grain, all the other variables, and we have a food inflation that didn’t reach its peak, nor it will soon enough. You can expect food to get more expensive until 2023, maybe 2024.
A good article by the New York Times ( you can read the archive here ), it explains quite decently, why the current model came to such a level of dysfunction, another angle of why warehouses lack space. It’s not merely they run lean, there is currently a lack of manpower in all stages of shipping, plus scarcity of raw materials, plus energy woes, governmental ineptitude. I said months ago there was no feasible way to solve the logistical mess in 2022.
”Experts” once again catch up and wake up to the reality that it will require new strategic thinking, realignment of allies and supply chain, huge investments. As someone else put, Just in Time will become Just in Case and everyone will now carry more inventory as a hedge against any disruption. Good choice, even though extremely expensive in the near future.
Another one of “told you so”, China keeps using their (fake) Zero Covid policy as a hybrid war instrument to hurt the rest of the entire planet. Declaring lockdown on a region that is a big producer of aluminum… something that has been “scarce” for a few months now.
The problem with doing my style of analysis and forecasting is, I will often sound like an asshole, or just repeat myself to make a point. Need to work a way around this, yet it is efficient to make a few statements.
Alas we wait, as I mentioned before, everything will start to move (and probably cascade and fracture a little from pressure), when the Chinese New Year ends and things start moving. Fast. By the end of February we might have a clear picture and possible pathways mapped out until the end of Q2, I expect merely the solidification of prior trends in regard to China and logistics… and every single shortage.
If you enjoy or take value from independent interdisciplinary analysis, consider becoming a free or paying subscriber, shifting to doing it full time and with higher quality. Appreciate all supporters and new subscribers.
Goldman Commodity Veteran Says He’s Never Seen a Market Like It
Jeff Currie, the closely-followed head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., says he’s never seen commodity markets pricing in the shortages they are right now.
“I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this,” Currie said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”
France Coal-Fired Power Plants Get Short-Term Right to Burn More
France is temporarily allowing electricity producers to burn more coal after the nation’s grid operator warned of possible power shortages.
Italy’s Government Readies New Energy Package to Curb Bills
Italy is working on a new aid package worth several billion euros to soften the blow of soaring energy prices on families and companies, and Prime Minister Mario Draghi is resisting pressure from parties to finance it by expanding the deficit, according to people familiar with the matter.
Worst of Food Price Inflation Yet to Come, Tesco Chairman Says
Food price inflation could rise as much as 5% in the spring, exacerbating the U.K.’s growing cost-of-living crisis, according to the chairman of the country’s biggest supermarket chain.
A Normal Supply Chain? It’s ‘Unlikely’ in 2022.
The chaos at ports, warehouses and retailers will probably persist through the year, and perhaps even longer.
With the havoc at ports showing no signs of abating and prices for a vast array of goods still rising, the world is absorbing a troubling realization: Time alone will not solve the Great Supply Chain Disruption.
It will require investment, technology and a refashioning of the incentives at play across global business. It will take more ships, additional warehouses and an influx of truck drivers, none of which can be conjured quickly or cheaply. Many months, and perhaps years, are likely to transpire before the chaos subsides.
“It’s unlikely to happen in 2022,” said Phil Levy, chief economist at Flexport, a freight forwarding company based in San Francisco. “My crystal ball gets murky further out.”
For those who keep tabs on the global supply chain, the very concept of a return to normalcy has given way to a begrudging acceptance that a new normal may be unfolding.
Cheap and reliable shipping may no longer be taken as a given, forcing manufacturers to move production closer to customers. After decades of reliance on lean warehouses and online systems that monitor inventory and summon goods as needed — a boon to shareholders — manufacturers may revert to a more prudent focus on extra capacity.
Aluminium output stable in China's Baise amid lockdown but logistics under pressure
Aluminium production in the southwest Chinese city of Baise, which has gone into lockdown after recent COVID-19 outbreaks, remains stable though transportation disruptions are starting to weigh, the local industry association said on Tuesday.
The city on China's border with Vietnam in the Guangxi region has an annual aluminium production capacity of nearly 2.2 million tonnes, or some 5per cent of China's total. It also possesses around 9.6 million tonnes of alumina capacity.
COMPASSIONATE EXTINCTION PLAN (CEP)
1. Every country on the planet is on board with the Injections. Even Sweden. When have all countries aligned on any issue? Never.
2. Not a single MSM outlet is interviewing any of the expert dissenters – Yeadon, Bridle, Montagnier, Bossche etc… and the mainstream social media platforms are blocking them.
Conventional Oil peaked in 2005 http://www.euanmearns.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/C-Cdec141.png
Shale in 2018.
According to Rystad, the current resource replacement ratio for conventional resources is only 16 percent. Only 1 barrel out of every 6 consumed is being replaced with new resources
Shale binge has spoiled US reserves, top investor warns Financial Times. https://energyskeptic.com/2021/the-end-of-fracked-shale-oil/
Shale boss says US has passed peak oil | Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/320d09cb-8f51-4103-87d7-0dd164e1fd25
THE PERFECT STORM : The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel https://ftalphaville-cdn.ft.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf
Our fossil fuel energy predicament, including why the correct story is rarely told https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/11/10/our-fossil-fuel-energy-predicament-including-why-the-correct-story-is-rarely-told/
“The global economy was facing the worst collapse since the second world war as coronavirus began to strike in March, well before the height of the crisis, according to the latest Brookings-FT tracking index. “The index comes as the IMF prepares to hold virtual spring meetings this week, when it will release forecasts showing the deepest contraction for the global economy since the 1930s great depression. https://www.ft.com/content/9ac5eb8e-4167-4a54-9b39-dab48c29ac6c
Collapse Imminent: https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-collapse-and-pandemic-simulation/
The Illusion of Stability, the Inevitability of Collapse http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-illusion-of-stability-inevitability.html
Fed is sharply increasing the amount of help it is providing to the financial system https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/23/fed-repo-overnight-operations-level-to-increase-to-120-billion.html Banks did not trust each other - similar situation when Lehman collapsed
Oil Gluts – do NOT indicate we have found more oil. We just pumped what’s left too fast.
Summary In 2019 a second Perfect Storm was approaching – the central banks had been doing ‘whatever it takes’ for over a decade…. Essentially nothing was off the table --- throw the kitchen sink at pushing GFC2.0 into the future. In 2019 the guns were blazing but the beast was no longer held at bay…
What do you do when you are burning far more oil than you discover --- and your efforts to offset the impact of expensive to produce oil push you to the edge of the cliff? You can accept your fate and allow the beast to shove you into the abyss…. Or you can take the ‘nuclear option’ and shut down as much of the economy as possible, preserve remaining oil and pump in trillions of dollars of life support to keep the system feebly alive.
Punchline: The problem global leaders face is that if you unleash the nuclear option without some sort of cover, the sheeple and the markets would be thrown into a panic and you risk blowing things up prematurely. So you need a reason for putting the global economy on ice --- one that does not spook the masses – one that is big enough to justify such epic amounts of stimulus and extreme policies --- and one that allows you to explain ‘this is just temporary – once this is gone --- we will get back to normal’
A pandemic is the perfect cover.
End Game – Covid was foisted on us as cover for the response to peak oil (if we don’t slow the burn oil prices go through the roof and we collapse) but it is also being used to convince billions to be Injected. The Injection is meant to cause extremely deadly variants similar to Marek’s this .. only worse because we are deploying into a pandemic https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tthis-chicken-vaccine-makes-virus-dangerous.
“Mass infection prevention and mass vaccination with leaky Covid-19 vaccines in the midst of the pandemic can only breed highly infectious variants.” https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/
French virologist and Nobel Prize winner Luc Montagnier called mass vaccination against the coronavirus during the pandemic “unthinkable” and a historical blunder that is “creating the variants” and leading to deaths from the disease.
The Vaccines and Boosters will Result in a Catastrophic Outcome - From a scientific viewpoint it is, therefore, difficult to understand how booster immunizations using vaccines which are not evolution-proof could prevent a highly mutable virus from escaping neutralizing anti-S Abs while driving the pandemic in a catastrophic direction, both in Israel and worldwide. How can the WHO stand by and watch as this additional experiment unfolds, soon to be followed by other countries? https://thehighwire.com/videos/vaccine-expert-warns-of-covid-vaccination-catastrophe/
The reason for this is that 8B people need cheap oil to live. They would starve without it. And 8B people without food would result in epic starvation, violence, rape and cannibalism. Industrial civilization ends soon after peak oil. Unfortunately we also have 4000 spent fuel ponds that will boil off and release toxic substances for centuries. These facilities cannot be controlled with computers and energy. So even the few remaining hunters and gatherer tribes will die as they consume these toxins in the food, air and water.
The PTB understand all of this and that is WHY every leader is on board with the Injections. There is NO way out of this --- so they have decided to mitigate the suffering as much as possible by putting us down and here is the mechanism https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/why-the-ongoing-mass-vaccination-experiment-drives-a-rapid-evolutionary-response-of-sars-cov-2.
One comment re: "countries won’t collapse themselves".
It is quite clear now that a cult has taken over most of what is know as "the West".
The two most egregious members of that cult are Justin Castro & Emmanuel Micron.
- Micron has from the beginning engaged in a "strategie du chaos", with active provocative policies, dirty black-block violence-inducing provocateurs destabilizing Yellow Jacket protests ... up to closing down nuclear plant "unplanned", while bankrupting semi private national utility EDF capping kWh price.
- Justin likewise is decried as "oh my God! so stupid! will lead country to chaos!" and indeed is getting Canada paralysed, arousing anyone with a conscience aka fringe-minority racist truckers.
These two countries are actively being collapsed, from the center of power.
The *CULT* need collapse for their *BUILD BACK BETTER* = coup.
BR is not collapsing, profitting immensely from a new commodity super-boom. Apparently BR are still needed in the Grand Scheme, to make stuff & grow stuff. Which apparently no one does anymore in "the Free West".
No, selling a Vanilla Macchiato capuccino at a Buckstars, or whatever, for US$3.65 - is not a productive activity. Or selling adds on fb or twtr.