Everything Shortage lite edition

Behold my scales of famine.

Trend analysis:

Anyone with a minimum of common sense, and by merely reading my previous posts, could tell this was the outcome of all the policies and political stupidity from the last 6 months… well, 18 to tell the truth.

As previously laid out on my Twitter and older Substack posts, Europe will experience massive blackouts in the coming winter, energy will keep being as expensive or more for the entire year of 2022, yields of a good number of countries are down, exports of main exporters are down, factories closing as I said they would in October, this will feed inflation, hinder recovery, and feed the cascade failures and create new tipping points.

There won’t be any recovery for most of the world in 2022. Timber which saw a exponential increase the last 18 months will skyrocket even more. It’s the Brazillian government squeezing the rest of the globe.

If you read my older posts and this one, you also can forecast what 2022 will look like. Hedge and prepare accordingly.

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Javier Blas @JavierBlas

EUROPEAN ENERGY CRISIS: Day-ahead electricity prices across much of Europe set fresh and frightening record highs. Germany jumps to an incredible €431 per MWh. At current prices, energy-intensive industries will rather shut down and re-sell their power on the spot market

Javier Blas @JavierBlas

EUROPEAN ENERGY CRISIS: Eleven associations of European energy-intensive industries (from cement to steel and from fertilisers to paper mills) issue a joint-statement warning about “unbearably high energy prices” and production shutdowns | #EuropeanEnergyCrisis

Europe's Biggest Aluminum Smelter Cuts Output on Power Price Surge

With energy costs spiking to fresh records day after day, financial strain is mounting for industries including metals and fertilizers. Aluminium Dunkerque Industries France, Europe’s top smelter of the metal, curbed output in the past two weeks. Trafigura’s Nyrstar will pause zinc production in France in early January and Romanian fertilizer maker Azomures temporarily halted activity. ²

Syria’s wheat harvest worst in 50 years

DAMASCUS, SYRIA – Syria in 2021 saw its lowest level of wheat production in 50 years as drought, high input costs and dire economic conditions took their toll, according to a recent report by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). ³

TheHappyHawaiian @ThHappyHawaiian

The Netherlands is the world’s second largest food exporter, by way of its 25,000 acres of high density greenhouses Prior to nat gas going parabolic, it was 30% of production costs They have to shut down when nat gas does a 10x It’s not economical to produce

Reuters @Reuters

EXCLUSIVE Brazil shuts illegal timber schemes, sheds light on Amazon logging reut.rs/32a3dr6

LOL ⁴

1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-22/european-power-surges-to-record-as-france-faces-winter-crunch?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business

2. https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/europes-biggest-aluminum-smelter-cuts-output-on-power-price-surge

3. https://www.world-grain.com/articles/16257-syrias-wheat-harvest-worst-in-50-years

4. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-21/u-k-households-face-a-24-billion-increases-in-energy-bills?utm_content=energy&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-energy&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social