In order to plan the initial black swan event in hopes of starting a cascade effect which you prefer you must base that plan on predictable human behaviors and reactions.
One error I’ve seen in prior black swan events was a miscalculation not in the plan or the collective social responses but in underestimating the intellect of outliers and underestimating the degree to which certain groups are “loyal” to particular leaders. There are a significant number of people that only merely “appear” to have political loyalties and preferences for certain leaders/figures. This is where those planning black swan events make an error. The subscribe too narrow a view of the social groups they mean to manipulate. Their own arrogance and vanity limits their ability to see that the outliers will always throw a monkey wrench in the results of black swan events.
Therefore to the degree that people can part ways with strict ideological stereotypes and cult like loyalties we would become collectively far more unpredictable and more difficult to manipulate. The more entrenched in group think the more susceptible we are to black swan events. The lesson - don’t be boxed in. Be a free thinker.
You can see this most recently with citizen journalists responding to NATO planting the seeds that Russia would attack the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
NATO plants the seeds, sets up the framework of what the response would be, puts Lindsay Graham behind a pedestal to describe the repercussions of such an attack, and then false flags the plant and watch the public fall in line with the narrative.
But the citizen journalists saw this coming and spoke out about it. Got the idea, the doubt of what NATO was really doing, got that out to enough of the masses that NATO had to call it off, at least for now.
thank you for this piece - we have certainly watched the corona nova swan play out... i feel like we are ready for another cascading event to begin shortly. your final remark "why i care little about politics" is spot on. would love to hear your insight as to the specific people organizing the dynamic chaos.
Glad it was helpful in some way. And yes that is precisely the reason I decided to postpone other pieces to invest time on this one because there is another one coming, I am certain of it, just hard to figure out "where". The when is most likely 2024/2025.
I may indulge and write about that, but mostly the perfect example is cited here, and they are very public about it. The pests at the WEF. Other types of councils do the same, for some reason the WEF achieved success at an alarming pace. Sometimes I got the gut feeling they are merely another facade, and strings can be seen here and there.
An excellent analysis encompassing everything we are seeing playing out in real time. The near impossibility at this point of being able to distinguish what is real, in terms of events in the news, and what isn't is probably the most stark red flag of it all. Thanks for keeping us all sane.
Thank you for your words and yes the indistinguishable nature of current events is by (a deep well thought) design and not accident as some... Minds imply.
Only read a few paragraphs so far but you're putting into words something that I've had on my mind for a while. Haven't seen anyone else discussing this so far. Thanks for doing the work.
Thank you. Some of the more complex post should be read slowly, and as I often say, perhaps take notes on things that pick the interest so people keep delving and learning, but it is not for everyone.
I've been having some success with what I call an "impression code" for dream interpretation and navigating rites of passage through the identification of personal Archetypes, speaking and listening to the language of the heart and working through character defects to make breakthroughs.
Several repeat messages to share from beyond within:
1. Mission impossible, Young girl as Catalyst for Pyroclastic Flow or Explosion in Major City (Greta?), Death of the Hero, Cheers theme song Lyrics (Economic and Volcanic Like Covid and La Palma).
2. Neo-Con Cattle Drive, GWB mis-pronouncing nuclear, Israel and Cesium, an event big enough to be "a replacement for a book of the Bible," and view inside busy IDF command center that doubles as medic triage and old Jesuit mission.. dusting off the alter to place new idols.
Good plan. Restraint of tongue and pen. I'm playing my African drum on stage and for the kids pavilion at a local arts festival today. Hope you enjoy your weekend!
JP - an excellent rundown of how management "never let a good crisis go to waste" and will "amplify the impact" at every opportunity.
"events that lead to a Black Swan can be engineered" - and they are, this is not by happenstance.
"The Black Swan itself is “unpredictable”, but the many dominos falling leading to a cascade of events isn’t." - predictable indeed, again not by happenstance.
This goes hand in hand with one of my favorites not unlike your Nova Swan - "take the best and leave the rest".
"The entire concept wouldn’t exist without “the black swan”" - Let us ponder this...
What "creates" the mythical Black Swan? Black Swan Theory = outliers, shit happens, etc. beyond the scope and scale of limitless imagination?
This supposition aka urban myth has been denigrated countless times, as all "Black Swans" were predicted by those with the capacity and wherewithal to see what was evident in advance.
There are no mathematical "surprises", only failures based in human bias, ipsedixitism and miscalculation viz. decisions and policy based in false doctrine and metrics.
Talebs examples: internet, personal computer, World War I, the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. None qualify, as all were foreseen and predicted in advance without the hindsight bias of the self "blinded".
"Wow! I never thought of or imagined that before." There are no surprises, but many failures. Incognizance is inexcusable.
And there you have it, the answer to the question. The latter is in fact what causes "Black Swans" to spring into existence in the minds of men, especially those lacking depth of imagination and foresight.
Taleb underscores all of these points in that, the black swan event depends upon the OBSERVER. Think isolated native islanders praying for the return of "sky" deities who arrived in B-52 flying machines.
And I shall leave that where I found it, as Phineus of Thrace might of.
Will be commenting more on this, but, once again - brilliant writing. I read quite a few substacks regularly...this is by far the best one.
Thank you, means a lot 😊
In order to plan the initial black swan event in hopes of starting a cascade effect which you prefer you must base that plan on predictable human behaviors and reactions.
One error I’ve seen in prior black swan events was a miscalculation not in the plan or the collective social responses but in underestimating the intellect of outliers and underestimating the degree to which certain groups are “loyal” to particular leaders. There are a significant number of people that only merely “appear” to have political loyalties and preferences for certain leaders/figures. This is where those planning black swan events make an error. The subscribe too narrow a view of the social groups they mean to manipulate. Their own arrogance and vanity limits their ability to see that the outliers will always throw a monkey wrench in the results of black swan events.
Therefore to the degree that people can part ways with strict ideological stereotypes and cult like loyalties we would become collectively far more unpredictable and more difficult to manipulate. The more entrenched in group think the more susceptible we are to black swan events. The lesson - don’t be boxed in. Be a free thinker.
You can see this most recently with citizen journalists responding to NATO planting the seeds that Russia would attack the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
NATO plants the seeds, sets up the framework of what the response would be, puts Lindsay Graham behind a pedestal to describe the repercussions of such an attack, and then false flags the plant and watch the public fall in line with the narrative.
But the citizen journalists saw this coming and spoke out about it. Got the idea, the doubt of what NATO was really doing, got that out to enough of the masses that NATO had to call it off, at least for now.
thank you for this piece - we have certainly watched the corona nova swan play out... i feel like we are ready for another cascading event to begin shortly. your final remark "why i care little about politics" is spot on. would love to hear your insight as to the specific people organizing the dynamic chaos.
Glad it was helpful in some way. And yes that is precisely the reason I decided to postpone other pieces to invest time on this one because there is another one coming, I am certain of it, just hard to figure out "where". The when is most likely 2024/2025.
I may indulge and write about that, but mostly the perfect example is cited here, and they are very public about it. The pests at the WEF. Other types of councils do the same, for some reason the WEF achieved success at an alarming pace. Sometimes I got the gut feeling they are merely another facade, and strings can be seen here and there.
An excellent analysis encompassing everything we are seeing playing out in real time. The near impossibility at this point of being able to distinguish what is real, in terms of events in the news, and what isn't is probably the most stark red flag of it all. Thanks for keeping us all sane.
Thank you for your words and yes the indistinguishable nature of current events is by (a deep well thought) design and not accident as some... Minds imply.
Only read a few paragraphs so far but you're putting into words something that I've had on my mind for a while. Haven't seen anyone else discussing this so far. Thanks for doing the work.
Thank you. Some of the more complex post should be read slowly, and as I often say, perhaps take notes on things that pick the interest so people keep delving and learning, but it is not for everyone.
Love your content. Great system!
I've been having some success with what I call an "impression code" for dream interpretation and navigating rites of passage through the identification of personal Archetypes, speaking and listening to the language of the heart and working through character defects to make breakthroughs.
Several repeat messages to share from beyond within:
1. Mission impossible, Young girl as Catalyst for Pyroclastic Flow or Explosion in Major City (Greta?), Death of the Hero, Cheers theme song Lyrics (Economic and Volcanic Like Covid and La Palma).
2. Neo-Con Cattle Drive, GWB mis-pronouncing nuclear, Israel and Cesium, an event big enough to be "a replacement for a book of the Bible," and view inside busy IDF command center that doubles as medic triage and old Jesuit mission.. dusting off the alter to place new idols.
Thank you for the kind words.
Most of my dreams are vivid dreams, meaning I basically control the dream world, so there is no room for interpretation =(.
I will have to ponder these messages, with the first one being hella intriguing to me.
1. Lahaina?
2. Israel and Hamas at War this morning.
Yes keeping an eye on Israel and Hamas, may write something. I don't like "baiting" though 😢
Good plan. Restraint of tongue and pen. I'm playing my African drum on stage and for the kids pavilion at a local arts festival today. Hope you enjoy your weekend!
JP - an excellent rundown of how management "never let a good crisis go to waste" and will "amplify the impact" at every opportunity.
"events that lead to a Black Swan can be engineered" - and they are, this is not by happenstance.
"The Black Swan itself is “unpredictable”, but the many dominos falling leading to a cascade of events isn’t." - predictable indeed, again not by happenstance.
This goes hand in hand with one of my favorites not unlike your Nova Swan - "take the best and leave the rest".
"The entire concept wouldn’t exist without “the black swan”" - Let us ponder this...
What "creates" the mythical Black Swan? Black Swan Theory = outliers, shit happens, etc. beyond the scope and scale of limitless imagination?
This supposition aka urban myth has been denigrated countless times, as all "Black Swans" were predicted by those with the capacity and wherewithal to see what was evident in advance.
There are no mathematical "surprises", only failures based in human bias, ipsedixitism and miscalculation viz. decisions and policy based in false doctrine and metrics.
Talebs examples: internet, personal computer, World War I, the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. None qualify, as all were foreseen and predicted in advance without the hindsight bias of the self "blinded".
"Wow! I never thought of or imagined that before." There are no surprises, but many failures. Incognizance is inexcusable.
And there you have it, the answer to the question. The latter is in fact what causes "Black Swans" to spring into existence in the minds of men, especially those lacking depth of imagination and foresight.
Taleb underscores all of these points in that, the black swan event depends upon the OBSERVER. Think isolated native islanders praying for the return of "sky" deities who arrived in B-52 flying machines.
And I shall leave that where I found it, as Phineus of Thrace might of.