The everything... Collapse ?

Math defying odds.

Before you read any of this, you should read the Nova Swan post. Part of this is its cascade effects, part greed, and you can sprinkle Hybrid warfare here and there, for a amazing complex mess. Also advise the read to check out most of the daily briefings and the everything cascade ones if you want a full perspective/spectrum view of this. You can even map it out and see if you can track all secondary and tertiary order effects.

Events this week cemented both the first and possibly the second quarter of the year already. The cascade effects are easy to folow merely reading what is laid out here.

In one hand, the energy woes of Europe, as previously outlined, are getting worse, and even though they are experiencing a warmer winter which helps some of the LNG inventory, the financial pressure and misguided lockdown policies are coming to collect their due.

European countries are starting to decline under the heavy pressure of the inevitable fate of EROI. Nothing survives expensive or inefficient energy. The brazillian president paying attention to the attempt to collapse entire economies with green policies, is securing it’s energy future, or part of it.
Lumber, which experts said would stabilize, will probably become rather scarce and at high prices for a good few months.

And all the main and important stories of the last few days are China. And it’s insane, quasi-Hybrid Warfare and misguided 0 Covid policies. While under a HW perspective you could say they are harming their opponent, and serious analysis will demonstrate they are also shooting themselves on both foots. The cascade effects of the last week events have such repercusions that it will caught many by surpise. China is the corner stone of both the actual supply chain, and almost every material or part to actually run a local supply chain, factories and farming. Omicron is affecting 20% of the logistical workforce in China, specially truckers.

A quick web search, and you will find that 20% is also the global average. The ramification of an already stretched and overwork, poorly trained, brittle workforce is damning and a given ticking time bomb. A disaster in the making.

There is no feasible way, under a honest analysis, 2022 will hold to be any better or we see any sort of improvements under current, misguided, imbecile Covid policies, the socio-economical, cultural and financial damage will put to shame any and ALL others in history. It’s setting a dark tone for the next 3 years.

From raw materials, to manufactured and finished products, the Everything Shortage will be the norm and intensify. There won’t be enough food to keep prices down, there won’t be enough animal protein. Not enough grain. The economical cost of the last 2 years is due.

The reader, be it an analyst, think tanker, policy maker, power broker or average Joe, should read all my other posts, write down the important points for your circumstances and goals, map it out and set up a course for a resilieant plan. Resource scarcity is at the doors, and countries will starte devising creative ways to keep it inside their borders under any pretense.

Those two’s in our year are not numbers. They are black swans, and a flock is coming.

France’s Le Maire Says Power Price Surge Is ‘Absolute Emergency’

• Finance minister says government working to find solution

• Inflation in euro area accelerated unexpectedly in December

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said the government is worried about the economic and social fallout from the surge in energy prices and is trying to find ways to keep protecting consumers and businesses. ¹

Indonesia's coal supply crunch over, minister tells local media

Indonesia's power emergency, which has triggered a coal export ban rocking global energy markets, is over and the government is reviewing a new formula for its mandatory domestic sales policy, a senior cabinet minister told local media on Friday. ²

Trucker Snarl in East China Hits Ningbo’s Container Shipping

suspension of trucking services in several parts of East China’s Zhejiang province has slowed the transportation of manufactured goods and commodities through one of the world’s most important ports.

There are strict controls on trucks moving goods to or from the Beilun district in Ningbo after the discovery of several cases of Covid-19 in the area, shipping line A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S said in a Thursday customer advisory. This suspension, along with restrictions on truckers in some areas in and around Zhejiang, has halted operations at some yards and warehouses at Ningbo port.“Any delays at Ningbo come at a bad time for global supply chains, which are suffering from the logjams created by the pandemic,” said consultant Russell Group Ltd. in an e-mail.

“Unfortunately, the situation may get worse, with the Chinese Lunar New Year, as companies cannot stock up their inventories for the upcoming months, forcing them to either look for alternative shipping or products, all of which will feed into higher costs for the consumer.”

The holiday, celebrated in China and in other parts of Asia, starts around the end of this month and usually means a two-week lull in factory production.

The port was partly shut for weeks last August after a Covid-19 outbreak, causing a slowdown in exports, disruptions and congestion across supply lines.

Some polyester factories in Ningbo have stopped work because they can’t receive raw materials via truck or ship out goods, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. Road deliveries of liquefied natural gas, an important fuel for industries unconnected to pipelines, has also slowed. ³

Expect More Shipping Chaos as Omicron Forces Transport Workers to Quit

• About 20% of professional truck driving jobs globally unfilled

• Seafarers also reluctant to come back after 2021 experience

From seafarers refusing to get back on ships to truck drivers whose concern over Covid-related border closures trumps the lure of higher pay, the transport industry is bracing for another roller coaster year of supply-chain disruptions.

As omicron infections surge and governments tighten restrictions, logistics companies around the world, from global giants to small businesses, can’t find enough staff. According to the International Road Transport Union, around one-fifth of all professional truck driving jobs are unfilled, despite many employers offering increased wages. Some pockets of shipping are also sounding the warning bell about future hiring prospects.

“2022 is shaping up to be another year of severe disruption, under supply and extreme cost for cargo owners,” said Simon Heaney, an analyst at maritime research consultancy Drewry. “The virus is once again showing it’s in charge,” he said, predicting another 12 months of stretched labor and healthcare-related red tape.

Pipeline Disruption

Western Shipping Pte Ltd., a Singapore-based tanker operator, said about 20% of its some 1,000 mariners don’t want to get back onto ships. Around 5% of Anglo-Eastern Univan Group’s 30,000 mariners had indicated as of last month they aren’t interested in a new contract.

Western Shipping is having to hire seafarers from other companies and offer them good bonuses to boot, according to Managing Director Belal Ahmed, who also chairs the International Maritime Employers’ Council.

“What happens then is you bring in people who aren’t qualified, you get them through a shorter training and promote them to roles that require more experience,” Ahmed said. “That could lead to more serious incidents and accidents on ships, groundings, even pollution. I‘m afraid we’re heading toward a disaster.” ⁴

China’s Economy Is in for More Pain as Virus Cases Persist

• Bloomberg Economics sees retail sales growth weakening

• Computer memory production cut, disruptions in port city

China’s strict Covid strategy is set to inflict more economic pain, potentially curbing consumer spending and disrupting production and shipping as virus outbreaks persist, economists say.

The zero-tolerance policy on Covid-19 means any cases will be met with strong containment measures that stifle consumer spending… ⁵

Bolsonaro Throws a 15-Year Lifeline to Thermal Coal in Brazil

Measure extends use of coal-fired power complex until 2040

Government says it needs to avoid negative economic impacts ⁶

Lumber Is Soaring Again Thanks to Supply Snags From Canadian Floods

Western Canada flooding caused persistent supply constraints

Rally adds $18,600 to average U.S. home price, industry says.

Lumber prices are soaring to levels not seen in seven months as the lingering effects of flooding in Western Canada disrupt supplies and shipments. ⁷

Greece to Help People Pay Higher Energy Bills Through January

• Subsidy to consumers, businesses extended by a month

• Support program to cost 400 million euros for January

Greece is extending measures designed to help households and businesses pay their power and gas bills in January as the surge in energy prices shows no sign of let up.

“The government will support households, farmers and also businesses against the global turmoil in energy prices for another month,” Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said on Friday. While the emphasis is on relieving households, the government wants to help businesses maintain growth and jobs, as well as avoid increases in production costs that could feed into the prices of products, he said in a televised address. ⁸

Turkey’s State Gas Importer Races for Funding as Prices Surge

Banks wary of lending to Botas amid price surge and lira crash

Company aiming for loan of about $2 billion to pay for imports

Turkey’s national gas company is trying to raise billions of dollars to pay an import bill due early this year, following a surge in energy prices and a collapse of the lira. ⁹

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1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-07/france-s-le-maire-says-power-price-surge-is-absolute-emergency?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-energy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=energy

2. https://www.reuters.com/business/indonesia-minister-says-emergency-over-coal-supply-crunch-cnbc-indonesia-2022-01-07/?taid=61d819afdf9b5d0001e3aece&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

3. https://www.bloombergquint.com/china/trucker-snarl-in-east-china-hits-container-shipping-from-ningbo

4. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-27/truck-drivers-to-seafarers-quit-as-covid-shutters-borders-again

5. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-07/china-s-economy-is-in-for-more-pain-as-virus-cases-persist?utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social

6. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-06/bolsonaro-throws-a-15-year-lifeline-to-thermal-coal-in-brazil?utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter

7. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-06/lumber-prices-surge-as-transport-logjams-crimp-canadian-supply?utm_content=energy&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-energy

8. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-07/greece-to-help-to-people-pay-higher-energy-bills-through-january?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business

9. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-06/turkey-s-state-gas-importer-races-for-funding-as-prices-surge?utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-energy&utm_content=energy&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter

10. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-01-07/supply-chain-latest-omicron-supermarket-food-shortages?utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business