Before I send my yearly Christmas e-mail, I will likely send another article, shorter in nature, a bit of gloating, but it is remarkable science being done. Herpes virus and misfolded proteins =).
There are a lot of good points, but quite a number of misconceptions, too many to point out in a simple comment, I understand the core of the total argument but I disagree.
Most people, even "tech" people, skilled programmers do not understand the sheer, absurd complexity (although the math is "simple"), Language Models are built upon, and it gets actively highly complex when we talk about the algorithms we use to build, and run these systems, which I often state they are basically stone-age in terms of efficiency.
It takes A LOT of compute to just run a model for one consumer, meaning CPU, RAM, VRAM, storage, a little less so, because our algorithms, the architecture itself, everything is horribly designed, we are brute-force "intelligence" (more like cleverness currently). And this ends up needing a ton of data centers to build models, train, and serve to consumers and enterprises, regardless of actual gains in any metric you want to analyze (productivity, etc).
You add here the misguided, cultish belief that the more you scale = the higher intelligence you achieve, and this AI-rush feeling of "we gotta win" Americans have and you have scammers like Sam Altman and Elon Musk getting funding because they guarantee (without any actual knowledge of the fact) that DEMAND will occur.
The black swan will come with an architectural breakthrough, and I have said on Twitter quite a few times that it is likely to happen because of DeepSeek. They often publish highly technical papers that anyone can replicate with enough funding/compute, state their goals, and in the end, achieve those goals.
Architectural breakthrough, if achieved, will cause a worse market crash than the one we had the first time, because it will change the core of the business. Because then you have excess compute, which theoretically you can shift towards other things or train better models, but certain breakthroughs can "break reality".
Bear in my you can find me criticizing "scale is all you need" since the very first few months of ChatGPT 3.5, years ago. I abhor that notion and predicted a ton of the breakthroughs achieved by different AI labs (not just forecasting DeepSeek).
Thanks. As just a guy on a small farm raising kids you have been just super. Ill make more money and send you some someday i hope . If i could easily dash you some coin without compkexity , like out my pocket into your i would do it in a heart beat.
Not being in these tech fields the impacts of the markets and activity are somewhat obscure to me. So thank you for bringing attentiin to them . Honestly i am praying to the Sun to save us from ourselves. Seems some kind of major crisis is in the air. Governments are making up narratives to shift into authoritarian positions around the world, most noticeable amongst the west alliance. And tech is being exploited to mobilise political activities. Cant its because of BRICS or if BRICS was a timely response to the growing problem, but it surely plays a part in the global picture.
How can population not be an issue ? I think the simple calculous puts the consumer as essential to wealth, but from a perspective of power robots may be a sufficient surrogate , if only still too risky.
So it really looks to me like all roads lead to population reduction. Its just a matter of optimum timing. Critical data centre infrastructure seems very much like an end game sort of thing. And the players may align across national security boundaries , or not.
In the last few years i have found myself trying to understand brutality better. As its brutality that underpins our societies.
When faced with this idea of getting more tech or fail to take advantage before the inflation apocalypse. Fuck i font even know how an urban city dweller apptoaches that. In my situation i am considering getting panels and hours of batteries. Small farms are under pressure as supply chain issues fir tractor parts are issues. But bigger factory on wheels type of scale with robotics and gps and such for cash cropping is moving in.
Seeing factory farming and appreciating the farming of livestock , it seems that those in power look at much of labor in the same way. Redundancy , or low value to to market sutplus means a cull. Culls are a reset that saves loosing on marginal costs and inputs. Those that make the decisions and pull the strings tend to work at scales that dont see the life any more.
Maybe I should start writing articles in the vein as I used to, covering other subjects, with more consistency, maybe that is also helpful.
I deeply appreciate the intent, Support is appreciated, and whenever you do, I will be grateful, but as I say, sometimes it is not obligatory =).
Sadly, the tech field changes cascade into societal in the most drastic ways possible, so being even a bit aware can give you a hedge against any upcoming drastic changes, and also allow someone to adapt to the changes quicker/faster.
I am sad to say I had the same feeling for a few days now, of a bigger crisis brewing, and as you aptly put it, all governments are using the same excuses, the same playbook for a major authoritarian power grab on an unprecedented scale. The BRICs countries are in on it, any opposition is purely a facade so others think there is distinction within the system.
As I shared in some older Fourth Option articles, I think there are distinct groups with separate beliefs fighting for crumbs of power, which is evidenced even on social media at large, with the older elites seeking ways to induce population reduction, and with another sect, younger elites, believing the opposite. In that regard, I suspect there is a shadowy fight between groups.
Under specific circumstances, brutality is a very good tool to have it honed, since I am deeply familiar with it, so I think your endeavor to understand it may bear fruit, different ones.
The farming aspect of your comment, to me, falls down precisely on the old vs new elites, with the old ones exploiting their century-old wealth consolidation to wipe out small farmers and create a cascade effect on affecting population levels and social stability.
Thanks for this. I just bought a new Lenovo laptop last year. It's been the most durable brand that I've had and I made the mistake of buying a Toshiba and then an HP instead (the HP was the biggest piece of crap!). But now I'm thinking of upgrading my wife's (the HP lol) before things hit the fan. I have an unrelated question: have you ever used Linux? I'm really on the verge of finally being done with Microsoft with their bullshit data harvesting, telemetry, "feature" "upgrades", "proactive security", and other similar challenges to the ownership of my computer. Linux has always been way too complicated for me in the past, but Windows 11 might finally change my mind.
Sorry for the delayed reply. I still have my Lenovo from almost 20 years ago, and it still works, but I need to buy a bunch of parts for it to work properly. The fact that it is still usable is astonishing. Toshiba used to be super reliable, but HP has taken a nosedive in the past decade or so.
I have used Linux, yes, but it is extremely hard to beat Windows on most modern tasks for most users. You can use specific software or go on GitHub and find programs that will kill all MS data harvesting bs.
You can turn off most of them, too, in Windows, which I always do.
Modern Linux is not super complicated anymore, you have certain distros (versions of Linux) that kinda are "plug and play". People use Linux because of its efficiency and customization, as it is not a hardware glutton like Windows. You can tackle many tasks with fewer resources, rather than buying more expensive hardware.
You can download any Linux distro you want to use, turn a USB drive into a bootable Linux OS, and test it, without doing anything to your current machine. Pretty handy =D
I'm going to give the USB distro a shot then. I've spent so much time turning off all the various settings I could track down, registry edits and all that. MS continually seems to find ways to turn things back on. They ground my media server to a halt until I finally disconnected it from the internet, and I had a bunch of files deleted on my other computer when I transferred them to an HDD. I finally spent so many hours using AI to try to find everything I could and I realized that it will be a never ending battle: MS is hell bent on using our computers for their own purposes and more. I've dealt with MS BS since MSDOS 3.1 and Windows 11 was finally the last straw.
I was already looking but haven't put my money down yet. This message (and silver prices) will kick it over in early January. Thanks, Moriarty. Good advice. :-)
I hope you find good deals. At least here in Brazil, there is something called Cyber January where electronics go on clearance at some week of January, see if the US has the same, so you can either time deals when the proper dating comes or for January, albeit.
Before I send my yearly Christmas e-mail, I will likely send another article, shorter in nature, a bit of gloating, but it is remarkable science being done. Herpes virus and misfolded proteins =).
I wish everyone a great weekend ahead.
Are you familiar with Jay Valentine at Fractal Computing? I'm wondering what you think of his claims. https://fractalcomputing.substack.com/p/the-black-swan-event-about-to-hit-c98?
It would be a game changer for sure if true.
There are a lot of good points, but quite a number of misconceptions, too many to point out in a simple comment, I understand the core of the total argument but I disagree.
Most people, even "tech" people, skilled programmers do not understand the sheer, absurd complexity (although the math is "simple"), Language Models are built upon, and it gets actively highly complex when we talk about the algorithms we use to build, and run these systems, which I often state they are basically stone-age in terms of efficiency.
It takes A LOT of compute to just run a model for one consumer, meaning CPU, RAM, VRAM, storage, a little less so, because our algorithms, the architecture itself, everything is horribly designed, we are brute-force "intelligence" (more like cleverness currently). And this ends up needing a ton of data centers to build models, train, and serve to consumers and enterprises, regardless of actual gains in any metric you want to analyze (productivity, etc).
You add here the misguided, cultish belief that the more you scale = the higher intelligence you achieve, and this AI-rush feeling of "we gotta win" Americans have and you have scammers like Sam Altman and Elon Musk getting funding because they guarantee (without any actual knowledge of the fact) that DEMAND will occur.
The black swan will come with an architectural breakthrough, and I have said on Twitter quite a few times that it is likely to happen because of DeepSeek. They often publish highly technical papers that anyone can replicate with enough funding/compute, state their goals, and in the end, achieve those goals.
Architectural breakthrough, if achieved, will cause a worse market crash than the one we had the first time, because it will change the core of the business. Because then you have excess compute, which theoretically you can shift towards other things or train better models, but certain breakthroughs can "break reality".
Bear in my you can find me criticizing "scale is all you need" since the very first few months of ChatGPT 3.5, years ago. I abhor that notion and predicted a ton of the breakthroughs achieved by different AI labs (not just forecasting DeepSeek).
I hope this answers your question.
Thanks. As just a guy on a small farm raising kids you have been just super. Ill make more money and send you some someday i hope . If i could easily dash you some coin without compkexity , like out my pocket into your i would do it in a heart beat.
Not being in these tech fields the impacts of the markets and activity are somewhat obscure to me. So thank you for bringing attentiin to them . Honestly i am praying to the Sun to save us from ourselves. Seems some kind of major crisis is in the air. Governments are making up narratives to shift into authoritarian positions around the world, most noticeable amongst the west alliance. And tech is being exploited to mobilise political activities. Cant its because of BRICS or if BRICS was a timely response to the growing problem, but it surely plays a part in the global picture.
How can population not be an issue ? I think the simple calculous puts the consumer as essential to wealth, but from a perspective of power robots may be a sufficient surrogate , if only still too risky.
So it really looks to me like all roads lead to population reduction. Its just a matter of optimum timing. Critical data centre infrastructure seems very much like an end game sort of thing. And the players may align across national security boundaries , or not.
In the last few years i have found myself trying to understand brutality better. As its brutality that underpins our societies.
When faced with this idea of getting more tech or fail to take advantage before the inflation apocalypse. Fuck i font even know how an urban city dweller apptoaches that. In my situation i am considering getting panels and hours of batteries. Small farms are under pressure as supply chain issues fir tractor parts are issues. But bigger factory on wheels type of scale with robotics and gps and such for cash cropping is moving in.
Seeing factory farming and appreciating the farming of livestock , it seems that those in power look at much of labor in the same way. Redundancy , or low value to to market sutplus means a cull. Culls are a reset that saves loosing on marginal costs and inputs. Those that make the decisions and pull the strings tend to work at scales that dont see the life any more.
Maybe I should start writing articles in the vein as I used to, covering other subjects, with more consistency, maybe that is also helpful.
I deeply appreciate the intent, Support is appreciated, and whenever you do, I will be grateful, but as I say, sometimes it is not obligatory =).
Sadly, the tech field changes cascade into societal in the most drastic ways possible, so being even a bit aware can give you a hedge against any upcoming drastic changes, and also allow someone to adapt to the changes quicker/faster.
I am sad to say I had the same feeling for a few days now, of a bigger crisis brewing, and as you aptly put it, all governments are using the same excuses, the same playbook for a major authoritarian power grab on an unprecedented scale. The BRICs countries are in on it, any opposition is purely a facade so others think there is distinction within the system.
As I shared in some older Fourth Option articles, I think there are distinct groups with separate beliefs fighting for crumbs of power, which is evidenced even on social media at large, with the older elites seeking ways to induce population reduction, and with another sect, younger elites, believing the opposite. In that regard, I suspect there is a shadowy fight between groups.
Under specific circumstances, brutality is a very good tool to have it honed, since I am deeply familiar with it, so I think your endeavor to understand it may bear fruit, different ones.
The farming aspect of your comment, to me, falls down precisely on the old vs new elites, with the old ones exploiting their century-old wealth consolidation to wipe out small farmers and create a cascade effect on affecting population levels and social stability.
Buy it now, if you need it.
***
China Says Region Closer To War Due To US Record Taiwan Arms Package
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-says-region-closer-war-due-us-record-taiwan-arms-package
Thanks for this. I just bought a new Lenovo laptop last year. It's been the most durable brand that I've had and I made the mistake of buying a Toshiba and then an HP instead (the HP was the biggest piece of crap!). But now I'm thinking of upgrading my wife's (the HP lol) before things hit the fan. I have an unrelated question: have you ever used Linux? I'm really on the verge of finally being done with Microsoft with their bullshit data harvesting, telemetry, "feature" "upgrades", "proactive security", and other similar challenges to the ownership of my computer. Linux has always been way too complicated for me in the past, but Windows 11 might finally change my mind.
Sorry for the delayed reply. I still have my Lenovo from almost 20 years ago, and it still works, but I need to buy a bunch of parts for it to work properly. The fact that it is still usable is astonishing. Toshiba used to be super reliable, but HP has taken a nosedive in the past decade or so.
I have used Linux, yes, but it is extremely hard to beat Windows on most modern tasks for most users. You can use specific software or go on GitHub and find programs that will kill all MS data harvesting bs.
You can turn off most of them, too, in Windows, which I always do.
Modern Linux is not super complicated anymore, you have certain distros (versions of Linux) that kinda are "plug and play". People use Linux because of its efficiency and customization, as it is not a hardware glutton like Windows. You can tackle many tasks with fewer resources, rather than buying more expensive hardware.
You can download any Linux distro you want to use, turn a USB drive into a bootable Linux OS, and test it, without doing anything to your current machine. Pretty handy =D
I'm going to give the USB distro a shot then. I've spent so much time turning off all the various settings I could track down, registry edits and all that. MS continually seems to find ways to turn things back on. They ground my media server to a halt until I finally disconnected it from the internet, and I had a bunch of files deleted on my other computer when I transferred them to an HDD. I finally spent so many hours using AI to try to find everything I could and I realized that it will be a never ending battle: MS is hell bent on using our computers for their own purposes and more. I've dealt with MS BS since MSDOS 3.1 and Windows 11 was finally the last straw.
I was already looking but haven't put my money down yet. This message (and silver prices) will kick it over in early January. Thanks, Moriarty. Good advice. :-)
The sooner you buy, likely the more you save. Except RAM, consumers can still avoid the price and cost spike that will come in the next year.
No where to run RAM wise T_T
Exactly. I'm just waiting for the proper credit card dating. :-))
New Year's Day will see VICTORY!!!
Merry Christmas, everyone. :-)
I hope you find good deals. At least here in Brazil, there is something called Cyber January where electronics go on clearance at some week of January, see if the US has the same, so you can either time deals when the proper dating comes or for January, albeit.
Merry Christmas, Steve.
Moriarty, thanks for nudge. I have spread this among my friends.