The collapse of complex societies
EROOOOOOOOI JENKIIIIINS !
*(This thread was originally written on Twitter in Aug 16, 2021, some new additions now
You can also interpret this as an addendum to the Everything Shortage II, which I recommend you read it before this one)
As some of you know, one of my expertise is complex systems, specially cascade dynamics and failures. You know, the easiest way to make a complex system crumble into oblivion is the following. Make the cost of producing energy/resources higher than what they give. (EROI)
Any person who has a interest in complex system, complex societies learn this as its first lesson. Throughout history, the easiest way to destroy any complex society is the same. Society spend more energy/resources than it gets. It's the fate of complex societies to collapse. Both the book and this lecture by Joseph Tainter are highly recommended for understanding the last 18 months and the next 56. In complex systems, you can also look up non-linear dynamics papers, there is something called Tipping point cascade. It means that one small thing (node) can have a disproportional impact in the whole system, leading to a literal cascade of failures, because of the severe optimization and overreliance on different stages of the system.
Lecture linked above.
Interdependency is amazing in a well oiled machine, but your Just in Time model becomes a just in time to get fucked if a few “nodes” fail and contagion spreads.
I will exclude all the coincidences and possible hybrid warfare angles to not over-complicate things, for now.
Expensive and failing energy supply makes production and function of a complex society harder, inflation shortly follows, then low yield of food, and everything that entails. Signaling from 2 MONTHS ago, this 1 outstanding podcast episode quite tells you the story of how Europe would freeze the coming winter, how energy would get more expensive, and specially how the green policy virtue signaling is basically a societal suicide.
The articles below are mostly from October and November.
China Races to Avert Another Energy Crisis as Diesel Usage Soars
Switzerland Considers New Hydro Dams Amid Europe Power Crunch''We Don't Have Water': South American Dam Faces Energy Crunch as River Ebbs
I could go on and on and on, but people get the gist of it. Not only there is insufficient energy supply, factory production affected, raw materials processing, and finished products become scarce, and mainly, food production gets a severe hit.
This 2 is a very good article on the end of this cascade. Quote:
One big reason for surging fertilizer prices is surging prices of coal and natural gas. The urea in your urine is produced in the liver. The industrial kind is made through a century-old process that uses natural gas or gas derived from coal to produce ammonia, which is then used to synthesize urea.
China and Russia, two of the biggest producers, have restricted exports to ensure supplies for their own farmers. In China’s case, an energy crunch led some areas to ration electricity, which forced fertilizer factories to slash production.
From another article from Reuters.
A shortage of nitrogen fertilizer due to soaring natural gas prices is threatening to reduce global crop yields next year, CF Industries, a major producer of the crop nutrient, said on Thursday. 3
This one from the Economist 4
YET ANOTHER crucial global market has gone from glut to shortage at breakneck speed. Last September in Europe it cost €119 ($139) to buy enough gas to heat the average home for a year and the continent’s gas-storage facilities were brimming. Today it costs €738 and stocks are scarce. Even America, which has an abundance of shale gas, has seen prices more than double—albeit from a much lower level—and could see further increases if its winter is a cold one.
In the Nova Swan cascade the list of tipping points and non-linear effects is quite extensive, but if you follow your gut while reading the Everything Shortage posts, you can forecast what happens next too. Adding fuel to a burning inferno. The sentiment below is shared by farmers, logistics experts, retailers and the aware consumer. There is no going back to either supply and demand or “Just in time”, as I said many times before and others just parroted without comprehending the analytical framework behind, the system is in a contagion stage and no government is making sure critical nodes survive, they are feeding the contagion.
A growing shortage of one of the most important amino-acids to raise animal protein. 5
Lysine/L-lysine is an essential amino acid and is used to address nutrient requirements and improve performance for animals in agricultural production. It is used in pig diets, feed for poultry and for dairy cattle.
"In the long term, I believe that the era of the classic 'supply & demand' has ended. At this moment, we are no longer talking about a classic competitive market, determined by supply and demand. The world's goods flows are blocked by the transport and delivery capacity, deadlines and supplies for component products (parts, supply), a fact that fundamentally affects the global economy, pushes inflation and especially towards the global economic crisis."
China will squeeze the world out of their grains, feed, raw material, while protecting their internal market and holding on the necessary chemicals for other countries to grow food and raise animals. Only pain moving forward, given how inept every single politician and company head is.
And for the slow brains out there who insist this is all organic, this is all the system adapting. No it’s not, your brain just can’t do what I do, we are not the same. From the horse’s mouth. 6
Bonus for Biden literally fueling the collapse of his own country. They want to starve you, and rob your property rights.
The Stealth Gas-Heating Tax
The House methane ‘fee’ is a tax on consumers who use natural gas.
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https://anchor.fm/chris15401/episodes/Winter-Is-Coming-feat--Mark-Nelson-e1888ch
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/06/business/urea-fertilizer-food-prices.html
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nitrogen-fertilizer-shortage-threatens-cut-global-crop-yields-cf-industries-2021-11-04/
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/09/25/natural-gas-shortages-threaten-governments-green-goals
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/market-matters-blog/blog-post/2021/11/22/fuss-lysine-shortage
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/rfbo75/i_worked_in_the_energy_market_for_almost_a_decade/
Hmmm. Couldn't be more obvious now. All we can do is hope the masses catch on and rile up a change of leadership. Thats all we can do.
I wonder how many of your readers have a clue about the meaning of 'eroooooi jenkiiins'.
I vividly remember when Leeroy happened and was spreading quick on IRC. :) Good old times when memes were only for the geeks!