I seldom recommend people to read something, not for the lack of interesting articles or books I could point my subscribers to read, but more as not engaging in information deluge, most people already consume too much media (text or video) on a daily basis, regardless of my opinions on the quality of said media, but every once in a while there are some pieces that I feel deserve your attention.
This NR piece by Michael Brendan Dougherty is one of them. You can read 3 free articles per month on the website, and if you never even visit, you can also listen to this article. In case you can’t I took the liberty of reproducing the text via screenshots.
I will leave my own observations first, but I do insist you should read the entire piece first, this was a very honest and well-written article.
If you read my Beyond Mathematical Odds series which I may go back to writing some once in a while, still undecided, you will be aware the world was hit by many Swans (feel free to choose the color), with the first hit being the pandemic and the asinine global response to it.
From its many ripple effects, most of which are cataloged, analyzed, and unconventionally connected in my Substack, what from certain perspectives look like unconnected events, are in fact byproducts of that starting point. The Ukrainian War was either the second or third hit (the supply chain crisis which was a direct effect of the global lockdowns was another massive event), and I began writing BMO because of those events.
The Western elites, academia, and its intellectual and political class, high on hubris and misconception of how supply chains actually function decided to fund an unwinnable war, bankrupting an agricultural powerhouse, and giving leeway for disruptive efforts to come.
Much of the raw materials used to produce these weapons systems and munitions are dominated by either Russia or China, and some of the biggest domestic producers of certain materials like steel can’t supply the necessary quantity at the necessary time, because of the pandemic and energy costs. Even if sudden competence was to arise in the West, it will take years to solve all the logistical bottlenecks to produce the necessary quantity of weapons the West send to Ukraine.
Whatever next conflicts may arise in the years to come, any conflict at a large enough scale will see either the deployment of novel technology or trench warfare will be in vogue once more. The concept of small wars often comes to mind, perhaps erroneous in their analysis of the reasons that small wars would explode in the years to come to post The Great War on Terror, but the end result remains the same, the world will be littered with small conflicts.
As much as I attempt very hard to stay grounded on observational reality and truth, my instinct often screams this is what my former employers referred to as “Grand Event Design (or Manipulation)”. Sometimes “important” people message me, bankers, intelligence analysts, investors, etc asking specific questions or very very broad questions, and I often end my replies with the same question, which I will ask you.
How many Zero Probability Events happening within a very short timeframe are too many ?
Also, no need to share this substack, it is more a conversation between us than a “public” thing.
PS: Some of you may be happy to know my knee is fixed/healed for the most part, almost no pain, walk everywhere, needs some exercises and of course, heal completely. I was focusing on this lately because it was truly fucked up. Didn't use my BPC. Saving as a last resort
Very grateful for all the people who choose to support me on Substack or when they feel like on Kofi, and all the people who share.
My only "real" recommendation when people ask me about books is Rene Girard. But life won't be the same after you read Girard, accepting or not his theory.
Everyone is changed after reading Girard.
I'll have to admit that I was struggling with cognitive dissonance thinking this was from NPR, until realizing it was from NR (spell check induced typo, I'll assume).
The mental gymnastics that the neo-cons sequestered away in the cubicles of NR must be exhausting. They sip their seven dollar lattes, straighten their v-neck sweaters over their dry cleaned button downs, trying to sound like they're calm tea drinkers who could at a moment's notice either die their hair some faded shade of green and purple, or join the ranks of some guerrilla brigade to "fight for freedom".
It is a bit encouraging to read glimmers of reality from the NR, but I won't hold my breath. It is truly a Uniparty cheerleader, and lost it's way decades ago.
The passive equivocation by NR arguing both for and against funding the war in Ukraine is ignorant of the facts. This long term money laundering shit show, covering up years of corruption and deceit will crash economies, and civil societies if clearer minds do not intervene quickly.