Everything Cascade.

The mother of all supply crunch.

Well well well, how the tune shifted in mere weeks.

As per some of my Daily Briefings, and Everything Shortage and the two most recent ones, the metal shortage not only is here to stay, but it will intensify. Production won't be able to keep with demand, even if there was a strong recovery… well, any sort of economical recovery would be good at this point.

The reader, if working in sectors that use these metals, should ask higher ups and the old school management types to start hitting the old phone book. Adaptation, which is already happening in some third world countries like Mexico, is and will be the norm short term. Find new, out of the box ways of securing either supply or prices. At scale might make things both harder and easier.

The intra elite competition starts showing it’s face, on one side you have some people with common sense and politicians listening to them and trying to soften the decline or maybe avoid it of possible, on the words you have the elites literally fueling the collapse of civilization for moral and virtue signaling under misguided assumptions and the most moronic models ever (climate change).

The fact is, the current energy woes is feeding the systemic contagion, and as I previously said, it was one of the biggest signals and tipping points last year. The financial burden on both state and citizen will colossal, it will affect economic recovery and industrial output. It's difficult cycle/loop to get off without strong hands and good information, and people willing to tell decision makers the truth.

The last article, in screenshots should be read, I have nothing to add, because I literally forecasted this exact path multiple times.

The stupidity of 0 COVID is feeding the entire dynamics of the system, the more the Chinese government insists, deeper we find ourselves, the more critical “nodes” in the systems are disrupted, the further the contagion goes.

It’s like the fall of Roman empire. But the entire planet is the Roman Empire.

As a side note, I advise anyone reading this to hedge and prepare accordingly for the intensifying shortages, inflation, and diminishing food availability. An alternative power generation source/supply would be extremely beneficial short to long term.

Metals Traders Brace for the Next Big Squeeze as Supply Dwindles

• Nickel surged to a decade high this week as stockpiles shrink

• Inventories are at ‘critical levels,’ Trafigura’s Weir says

Industrial metal markets are marching higher again, as production outages and shrinking inventories revive worries about global supplies of some of the key building blocks of the economy and the green-energy transition.

Metals from aluminum to zinc surged in 2021 after the pandemic hit production at mines and smelters, wreaked chaos in global logistics networks, and sparked a boom in demand. In both copper and tin, London Metal Exchange inventory levels collapsed in squeezes that drove spot prices to records in wild trading. ¹

Gloomy outlook for global recovery, World Economic Forum survey finds

Only one in 10 World Economic Forum members surveyed expects the global recovery to accelerate over the next three years, a poll of nearly 1,000 business, government and academic leaders found, with only one in six optimistic about the world outlook.

"Global leaders must come together and adopt a coordinated multi-stakeholder approach to tackle unrelenting global challenges and build resilience ahead of the next crisis," Saadia Zahidi, WEF managing director, said.

Extreme weather was considered the world's biggest risk in the short term and a failure of climate action in the medium and long term - two to 10 years, the survey showed.

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Gas Prices to Stay High for Next Two Years, Centrica CEO Says

• O’Shea sees no reason to think prices will fall any time soon

• The U.K. market depends on global supply and demand picture

Natural gas prices are likely to remain high for the next two years, with very few options to boost supplies quickly, according to the chief executive of Britain’s biggest energy supplier.

The U.K. market is exposed to global supply and demand forces, and having more domestic supply wouldn’t have brought prices down significantly, said Chris O’Shea, CEO of Centrica Plc, owner of British Gas. Wholesale prices tripled last year, and millions of British consumers now face a more than 50% increase to energy bills from April. ³

Europe Faces $1 Trillion Energy Bill This Year, Citigroup Says

• Record prices lead to region’s highest energy bill in a decade

• Gas and electricity are becoming ‘prohibitively expensive’

Europe will get stung this year with the biggest energy bill in a decade as hyperinflation in natural gas and power prices hits homes and factories across the continent, according to Citigroup Inc.

Using current forward prices, the region’s total primary energy bill will come in at about $1 trillion, the bank said in a report. While previous peaks were largely driven by surging oil prices, this time it’s about the cost of heating and powering everything from homes to transport and big industrial plants that will help reduce carbon emissions. ⁴

EU Faces Investor Backlash as Gas Headed for Green Rulebook

• JPMorgan AM among critics warning move hampers climate goals

• EU set to include some gas, nuclear projects in green taxonomy

Some of the world’s most powerful investors are calling on the European Union to back away from plans to include natural gas in its green rulebook, amid warnings that the development risks undermining efforts to reach climate neutrality by 2050. ⁵

Supply Squeeze Risks Are Pushing Lithium Higher and Higher

• Pre-holiday maintenance in China, virus risks tighten market

• Battery prices to stay flat if upstream delivers on time: EVE

Lithium has burst into 2022 with a fresh price spike that hands electric-vehicle makers more warning of even sharper cost pressures to come.

Supplies of the mainstay battery material face a series of near-term risks that threaten deeper shortages just as demand accelerates with rising global EV adoption. An already-tight market is being roiled by everything from plant maintenance and Winter Olympics curbs in China, to pandemic-related labor shortages in Australia. ⁶

Trafigura Warns Metal Stockpiles at Critical Level: Saudi Update

Trafigura Says Metal Stockpiles at 'Critical' Level (3.30 p.m.) “We are at critical levels of inventory around the world, and prices are starting to move to reflect that,” Jeremy Weir, chief executive officer of trading giant Trafigura Group, said of the metals market. ⁷

1. httpss://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-12/metals-traders-brace-for-the-next-big-squeeze-as-supply-dwindles?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business

2. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/gloomy-outlook-global-recovery-world-economic-forum-survey-finds-2022-01-11/?taid=61ddc0f4b73271000151489c&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

3. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-12/gas-prices-to-stay-high-for-next-two-years-centrica-ceo-says?utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business

4. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-12/europe-faces-1-trillion-energy-bill-this-year-citigroup-says?utm_content=energy&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-energy&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic

5. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-12/eu-faces-growing-investor-ire-as-gas-headed-for-green-rulebook?utm_content=energy&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-energy&utm_medium=social

6. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-12/supply-squeeze-risks-are-pushing-lithium-higher-and-higher?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business

7. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-12/copper-market-facing-shortages-says-barrick-ceo-saudi-update