Well, I tried to stay positive but we already got our first tipping point of the year, quicker than expected. 1 One of the most important news (a marker) here is the Indonesian coal one.
Regardless of the duration of the halt, this is a tipping point, and it will lead to contagion. Mere bumps in demand lead to major cascade effects in China, factories with lower output or outright off, which feeds into the supply issues, and inflation, and slows recovery, which pressures everything up again. This should be in any analyst/think tank radar and model accordingly.
As previously outlined, chip shortage ain’t getting better any time soon, there is no incentive from any sides to solve this. So much profit going around, similar to the maritime mess we find ourselves in. At this point, I have a hard time discerning what is a legitimate cascade effect and what is human greed at work. German one for contrast, don’t think they are going to make it this year lol.
That popular revolt should be in everyone’s radar right now, it is becoming common place in broken economies and third world, but it will come everywhere this year, at some level or another. More on that on my Year Without Summer 2.
Swine fever you should refer to my Then Came the Plague post, again, like the last post. It is a mess few are paying attention, and I have been tracking for over a year. Like watching a train wreck.
Last post is for laughs and for anyone with a functional brain to pay attention.
You don’t need to worry about inflation if you don’t have money…lmao.
Chipmakers Seek Steady Sales Growth in Bid to End Boom-Bust Era
Supply shortage may begin to ease by second half of 2022
Semiconductors becoming essential to products across economy 2
Outbreak of African swine fever detected in Malacca pig farms
The Department of Veterinary Services (DVS) yesterday declared an outbreak of the African Swine Fever (ASF) which was detected in seven commercial pig farms in Paya Mengkuang at Masjid Tanah, here. 3
Its director-general Datuk Dr Norlizan Mohd Noor (pix) said the confirmation was made after it investigated reports from pig farmers involved, adding that samples that were sent to the Sepang Veterinary Laboratory were confirmed on Dec 20, 22 and 23.
German manufacturers hope supply constraints will ease in 2022
Supply bottlenecks held back German manufacturing activity in December, but manufacturers with full order books expressed confidence that these constraints will ease in 2022, a survey showed on Monday.
He added: "Supply chains remain under intense pressure by historical standards, and there's still a risk of fresh disruption as a result of flare-ups in the pandemic." 4
LOL5
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2288196-indonesia-halts-january-coal-exports
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-04/chipmakers-see-rare-sustained-growth-in-bid-to-end-boom-bust-era?utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business
https://www.thesundaily.my/local/outbreak-of-african-swine-fever-detected-in-malacca-pig-farms-GJ8694080
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-manufacturers-hope-supply-constraints-will-ease-2022-pmi-2022-01-03/?taid=61d2d4de93d1920001ce7aed&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-11/the-inflation-pros-from-argentina-offer-tips-for-rattled-americans?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business
One point in your collapsology I haven't seen you stress, is the *debt trap* in a hyper-inflationist crack-up.
OK, variable-rate debt people are fucked.
In thesis, *fixed rate* debt x hyper-inflation pays off your debt, & you basically get a free house.
Yeah sure.
When collapse happens, & income drops/stops before debt is paid, debtor can't pay even the devalued debt & loses principal. & no one except Black-Rock can buy the house, so its market valuation falls through the ground, not covering even residual mortgage value.
That's the plan to make you a renter you'll own nothing, but actually you won't be happy.
=> Can't have any debt entering the collapse.