Daily Briefing - Of hemorrhagic fever

And assassinations !

Jul 08, 2022

The last time I wrote a Daily Briefing was months ago, and I had a substantially lower number of subscribers, so FYI, Daily Briefings were/are shorter e-mails covering meaningful topics that I think deserve attention, with minimal analysis and some sort of opinion/forecast. Some of my earliest DFs have forecasting panning out now, as an example.

I fear I am about to send a few of these in the following weeks. As a Twitter follower wrote.

These are to be weeks where centuries happen.

The first and most important piece of news that most of you are aware of is Shinzo Abe assassination, the former Prime Minister of Japan.

Shinzo Abe assassination, how dem kill Japan ex-Prime Minister

A very important figure not only in Japanese politics but globally, a huge ally of the US, with very strong opinions (he blamed Ukraine’s government for the Russian invasion, among others). This will have massive geopolitical repercussions, also coincidental that Boris, PM of the United Kingdom was also just ousted…

Now to the main reason for this one. It has been a great interest of mine to follow the dynamics of disease outbreaks, especially Ebola.

Here are a few I tweeted about this subject last year.

Hundreds vaccinated against Ebola as Ivory Coast races to curb first outbreak in 25 years

Ebola outbreak 2021- North Kivu

Genetic sequencing analysis indicates that that this outbreak is linked to the two-year long outbreak that took place in North Kivu and Ituri provinces from 2018 to 2020, but the infection’s source is yet to be determined.

One aspect I had difficulty grasping was the waves of outbreaks. Why there are outbreaks of Ebola where they can’t quite pin down the epidemiological steps. So I went researching. In between that research this as a happy accidental finding.

New Ebola outbreak likely sparked by a person infected 5 years ago

Genome analyses suggesting virus persistence raise worries about stigmatization of survivors

There still is a debate on two aspects of Ebola infections. Reservoirs, and especially latency.

It is obvious if you have been reading me for a while of my opinions on viral latency, and everything else, there are even genetic sequences implying that. Yesterday DR Congo declared the end of its latest outbreak, which I tweeted as a sort of a mental note. But then…

WHO African Region @WHOAFRO

Ghana has announced the preliminary finding of two cases of #Marburg virus disease and if confirmed these would the first such infections recorded in the country ➡️ ow.ly/7yyo50JQZRr

Ghana announced a new Marburg outbreak. Marburg is different from Ebola, it is far “nastier”. I decided to go looking into how long ago, if ever, Ghana experienced a Marburg outbreak. The earliest I could find was August 14, 2021.

So, and to be very clear, in my opinion, given the correct environment and an immune-suppressed state, one could say the latency can go from 5 years to a short 1-2 years. This would be the simplest and easiest way to explain all the unexplainable outbreaks certain countries suffer in a (long-term) cyclical manner.

By the way, this is somewhat of intellectual curiosity, you should not be worried about Ebola or Marburg unless, in the next 4 weeks, 10 different countries experience simultaneous outbreaks. That is a sign something is afoot.

This isn’t an Ebola-centered piece though.

Missouri reports first Naegleria fowleri case since 1987, Iowa lake closed, considered a potential exposure

Missouri state health officials has been notified of a Missouri resident with a laboratory-confirmed infection of Naegleria fowleri. Naegleria fowleri is a microscopic single-celled free-living ameba that can cause a rare life-threatening infection of the brain called primary amebic meningoencephalitis (PAM). The Missouri patient is currently being treated for PAM in an intensive care unit of a hospital.
Naegleria fowleri is commonly found in warm freshwater such as lakes, rivers, and ponds; however, PAM is extremely rare. Since 1962, only 154 known cases have been identified in the United States. The only other case identified among a Missouri resident occurred in 1987, and currently, no additional suspected cases of PAM are being investigated in Missouri.

Iowa has potential first infection by brain-eating amoeba

Deadly Brain-Eating Amoeba With 97% Fatality Found in Texas River as Temperatures Rise

An early case from March in Texas in a poor 3-year-old kid T_T.

These kinds of amebas only cause severe disease under very stringent, specific conditions. Your brain, central nervous system, and eyes are considered immune-privileged sites, meaning that even the presence of antigens in these tissues won’t elicit an immune response.

That changes under among other scenarios, an immunosuppressive state. I don’t expect a deluge of cases of this, but it is something to be aware of, especially if kids you know are vaccinated (I doubt any of my readers vaccinated their kids against SARS-CoV-2). Expect other cases like this, here and there.

Don’t panic, but it is something to be aware of given the global immune shift…

Another form of Hemorrhagic Fever, Crimean Congo this time, keeps spreading in Iraq.

Iraq: Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever cases rise to 225

The Iraqi Ministry of Health announced on Thursday that the number of confirmed Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever cases has increased to 225, according to a Iraqi News Agency (INA) report. Cases have been reported from most governorates.
This is up from 208 cases reported last week.
Health officials recorded one additional death since our last report, bringing the total fatalities to 36.
Dhi Qar governorate has accounted for 40 percent of the cases countrywide (90).

Pakistan themselves are worried about the spread of the disease. I am not merely citing CCHF for being a hemorrhagic fever (like Ebola, Marburg), but because the only Biolab level 3 in Ukraine that was supposedly attacked by the Russians early on in the invasion, worked on said pathogens (many types of HFs).

I like to indulge in some conspiracies sometimes, leave me alone. Another e-mail coming shortly, most likely.