First and foremost, I would like to thank all subscribers and a big thank you for the ones who support the work, my odds of surviving 2022 get higher by every new supporter haha. Happy New Year to all of you, hopefully, with a little effort, most of you can take enough value from my Substack and be well-prepared for 2022.
Because most aren’t.
As usual, reading other briefings and Everything Shortage posts would be a great value to make a better judgment based on this post about the future of green energy. Reading that super short thread I link would give you a good start.
Among all the hurdles, green policies will face, besides the economic ones (not enough fiscal incentive, government backing, and with a recession coming… lol) is the supply ones. Expensive energy leads to expensive materials, which feeds into expensive up keeping, and even manufacturers of parts you need to source raw material can’t produce fast enough.
If by whatever miracle governments fix the energy woes of 2022, there is no feasible strategy besides procuring and securing materials right now to keep your country/company going. We all saw the last 18 months as recovery does to demand and when supply can’t keep with it. Tipping point cascades, leading to cascade failure.
This post is also a warning for anyone with national security perspectives, when there isn’t enough resources to go around, the best form to disrupt your enemy progress is using hybrid warfare tactics to make their technological efforts expensive or impossible.
Malicious/SPI will certainly take advantage of this 2022 onward.
Gas/LNG one is just to show the concerning and months old developing trend. EROI. Expensive energy will lead to systemic collapse.
Hope you all have a nice New Year's Eve.
Ferroglobe stoppage threatens US silicon supply with prices near peak, sources say
Ferroglobe halted production on Tuesday November 30 at one of the last two operational silicon plants the company has in the United States following an equipment malfunction, sources told Fastmarkets on Wednesday December 1.
The consequent disruption to supplies will come at a time when US silicon prices are the highest in the world, and just below historic highs following a global shortage.
A crane needed for production stopped working at Ferroglobe’s plant in Beverly, in the US state of Ohio, where it has two silicon furnaces, sources familiar with the situation said. 1
Electric vehicles and the nickel supply conundrum
One of the key commodities to realizing this ambition is nickel. Unlike other battery materials such as cobalt and lithium, nickel is unique in not being primarily driven by global battery demand. About 70% of the world's nickel production is consumed by the stainless steel sector, while batteries take up a modest 5%.
Concerns surrounding the availability of high-grade nickel supply to achieve sustainability goals of governments and original equipment manufacturers have been growing for some time. Developments and solutions have surfaced in the industry this year as the market adapted to rising battery metals demand. 2
China EV, battery makers grapple with graphite squeeze
China EV, battery makers grapple with graphite squeeze
Some 70% of graphite, used in battery anodes, comes from China
Upcoming Winter Olympics in Beijing to curtail output - source
U.S. EV maker Tesla opposes tariffs on graphite from China 3
Why a looming copper shortage has big consequences for the green economy
Copper prices have surged in 2021. The base metal remains in high demand, much thanks to its need in green energy projects and electric cars. In May 2021, commodities analysts at Goldman Sachs called copper ‘the new oil.’ That’s because electric cars need several times more copper than their gas-powered counterparts. And power grids getting electricity from wind, solar and hydro sources also need copper—much more than the industry is currently producing. Here’s how copper became so important to the world economy, and the green energy revolution. 4
LNG, coal lead 2021 commodities rally as markets eye COVID-19 for next move
LNG up more than 200%, while coal prices have doubled in 2021
Copper added a quarter in 2021, aluminium up 40%
Agriculture markets, including vegoil, made sharp gains
Commodities seen staying firm in 2022 if COVID-19 tamed 5
https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/4018661/Minor-metals/Ferroglobe-stoppage-threatens-US-silicon-supply-with-prices-near-peak-sources-say.html
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/blogs/metals/123121-nickel-supply-electric-vehicle-demand
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-ev-battery-makers-grapple-with-graphite-squeeze-2021-12-15/
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/07/30/why-a-looming-copper-shortage-has-big-consequences-for-the-green-economy.html
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/lng-coal-lead-2021-commodities-rally-markets-eye-covid-19-next-move-2021-12-31/?taid=61cf891ba4e5640001ce3762&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter