Daily briefing - Intensifying cascade
No system can escape EROI.
Good night. First, you should click on the tweet from Bjorn and read the entire thread. It's filled with signals, the tweet itself being a major one, as I previously outlined in other posts. The everything shortage is about to show its true potential and I am now aware it has come to the third world.
All others are energy-related, because energy is the functional basis of any complex system, biological or otherwise.
Turkey is slowly collapsing under its own weight, and its energy problem will not only affect the economy but food production, commodities, and the general state of the region.
And here we have another tipping point (a suspicious one at that), diverting gas from China to Europe, coal not going to China, here comes another power crunch, which feeds into the system, it will have secondary and tertiary order effects and fuel the supply chaos.
Power is getting expensive everywhere, it will get either more or stay expensive throughout 2022, therefore it feeds into the contagion and its effects.
At this point, it looks less like cascade effects and more like co-extinction cascades. We are barely into the first week of the year and the tone is set and partially the course.
The economy will hold until it doesn't anymore.
Nothing survives EROI. Biological or otherwise. This all feeds into the Nova Swan.
Turkey Significantly Raises Electricity, Natural Gas Prices
Turkey added to inflation pressure on Saturday by raising household electricity and natural gas tariffs substantially, citing the surge in global energy prices.
The cost of electricity will soar as much as 130% for some households, the Haberturk newspaper estimated, as the country switches to a graduated tariff system. 1
Gas Tankers Divert From China to Europe in Price Premium Race
Thirteen LNG ships re-route to Europe instead of Asia
Rare premium between Europe and Asia prices is quickly fading
More natural gas cargoes are being diverted away from China to Europe, as traders spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to take advantage of a rare price premium before it disappears.
Thirteen liquefied natural gas carriers shipping supply mainly from the U.S. and West Africa are re-routing to Europe instead of Asia, according to shipping data from Kpler and Bloomberg. That’s up from about eight ships spotted a week earlier. In one case, traders are sending a ship back through the Panama Canal, paying canal charges of almost $400,000 for a second time, according to Bloomberg estimates. 2
Indonesia talks on coal exports postponed as scores of ships in limbo
Coal vessel congestion builds off Indonesia after coal export ban
"We have not seen any shipments ..loaded after 31st December, said a trader in India's Western Gujarat state.3
Japan Power Price Jumps to One-Month High on Tokyo Snow Forecast
Next-day spot price rises to 29.78 yen a kilowatt-hour: JEPX
Parts of Tokyo could see snow on Thursday., JMA forecasts
Japan’s wholesale power rate jumped to the highest level in a month amid forecast signaling parts of Tokyo could see snow on Thursday, which could boost demand for heating.Â
The country’s next-day spot electricity price spiked to 29.78 yen a kilowatt-hour on Wednesday, the highest since Nov. 21, according to data compiled by the Japan Electric Power Exchange.
With the global energy crisis boosting fuel costs across the world, Japan’s trade ministry has been taking measures to make sure the country’s utility providers have enough LNG stockpiles to get through the winter months. LNG inventories held by Japanese power companies were at 2.42 million tons on Dec. 23, well above the 4-year average, according to the trade ministry. 4
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-01/turkey-raises-prices-of-electricity-and-natural-gas-in-new-year
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-05/gas-tankers-divert-from-china-to-europe-in-price-premium-race?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=energy&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-energy&utm_medium=social
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/indonesia-review-coal-export-ban-that-has-driven-up-global-prices-2022-01-05/?taid=61d584c8b7327100014bdc3f&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-05/japan-power-price-jumps-to-one-month-high-on-tokyo-snow-forecast
Ain't even half into the 1st month and this is already blowing my expectations. Oh lawd.