Good afternoon. Once again, give the substantial raise in subscribers I feel the need to explain, in case new subscribers missed. The focus of this work is the complexity, the entire system, a very unorthodox approach to all. Expect posts/e-mails that time talk about biology/medicine, time everything else.
Also trying a new format, me interjecting between each piece of news, tell me if this is better than the usual text first, signals (news) later.
I get the focus on the virus, we are in a pandemic, in more ways than one, contagion of the mind also goes around, but I rather repeat myself, and ask people to embody the generalist mind, and pay attention to it all.
Belarusian potash miner declares force majeure, no major impact foreseen on India
JSC Belaruskali, a Belarus-based potash miner and one of the largest producers of potash fertilizers in the world, has declared force majeure, i.e. inability to meet its current contracts and obligations via a letter addressed to its clients, reported Bloomberg.
This absence is set to impact the market adversely, given that potash is a key nutrient for commodity crops like corn and soybeans. Potash also constitutes a major, integral part of fertilisers. And with the soaring fertiliser prices due to already skyrocketing natural gas costs, is bound to worsen global inflation for consumers and make food production more costly.
Already the steep rise has forced many plants in Europe to stop or bring down production. As per media reports, the US Sanctions against Belaruskali OAO, Belarus's only potash miner, came into force on December 8, while penalties against Belarusian Potash Company that exports all the potash from the country, will come into effect starting April 1.
Green Markets data suggests that Belarus exports about 10-12 million metric tons annually, which accounts for a fifth of the global supply. Amongst its major receivers include Brazil, India and China.
Most of these countries are now trying to secure an alternate line of supply. For instance, Brazil is receiving increased quantities of fertilisers from Russia.
You can read many of my posts of me talking about how the fertilizer, crop situation and how this would affect food security, and should be the main concern of anyone else. And here we have tipping point, and another possible move for hybrid warfare, the article is enough for you to understand the dynamics of such event.
Food inflation is already high, drive by energy prices (energy drives the price of everything), the constant constrain of fertilizer supply, among other unforeseen consequences of governmental policy around the world. My last non-virus post (named Daily Briefings “DF” for new people) already mapped a concerning trend since last year of continuous disruption of pesticides, while I do hate them, they are more than needed right now.
Brazil barely produces most of the fertilizer it uses (it imports 90% of its potash needs) and is the biggest soy exporter in the world, and yet their crops expected to take a 13% drop, do not expect food prices to go down anytime this year. Demand for grain will keep at the current pace, since China bought literally 51% of the world’s grain last year, with no sign it will stop this year.
Exclusive-India Makes Record U.S. Soyoil Purchases as Drought Parches South America
Indian traders have contracted to import a record 100,000 tonnes of soyoil from the United States because of limited supplies from drought-hit South America, at a time when prices of rival palm oil are scaling record highs, three dealers told Reuters.
The higher purchases from the United States are expected to support U.S. soy oil prices, which have climbed nearly 20% this year to close to their highest in a decade, fuelling worries about food inflation.
The world's biggest edible oil importer traditionally buys soyoil from Argentina and Brazil, but lower bean output in these two leading exporters of the commodity forced New Delhi to turn to the United States, they said.
Good thing, given the current circumstances, American farmers will shift to soy, which is easier to grow. Price still stay high.
And now something I have been tracking for over 15 months now.
No Relief Coming on U.S. Chicken Inflation, Pilgrim’s Pride Says
February 9, 2022, 7:43 PM
Expensive chicken isn’t going away anytime soon, according to Pilgrim’s Pride Corp., the second-biggest U.S. producer.
The Colorado-based company is being squeezed by higher costs and labor shortages. At the same time, U.S. production isn’t growing fast enough to meet soaring demand. Pilgrim’s sales to grocery stores are exceeding pre-pandemic levels. It all points to elevated prices continuing in the near future, the company said in a statement Wednesday.
I have nothing to add to this completely avoidable disaster in the making, besides the reader reading the post below, the first interaction and special this one and the Twitter thread inside it.
No snark comments, just that the entire planet faces a real problem on protein security, most of the protein consumed in the world comes from poultry, revolts have started both by inflation on staples like grain, and when meat gets too scarce or hyper expensive (which already is today btw…).
Another thing to bear in mind, N Acetyl Cysteine is currently made from byproducts of poultry and hog processing… see an issue here ?
Coal India Says Output May Suffer Without a Price Hike
Lower production would risk new threat to the nation’s fuel supply
Some units are being pressured by higher costs, chairman says
State-run miner Coal India Ltd. warned production of the fuel may be hampered, risking new threats to the nation’s energy supply, if the company isn’t able to raise prices.
The world’s largest coal producer is facing cost pressures from a looming rise in salaries and on higher prices of diesel used to power mine equipment. Some of the company’s units are finding it “difficult to survive without a price hike,” Chairman Pramod Agrawal said on a call with analysts.
The unrelenting coal shortage goes on, not because of production, but demand, stupidity (green policy) took hold over the world, partially by pressure from the world's biggest fund, and “ impact funds” by using a myriad of methods.
Producers can’t keep up with demand, which affects, quite literally, every single aspect of society. I also have many posts talking about this aspect (energy).
Which can lead too…………
Ethiopia's Abiy inaugurates electricity production at Nile mega-dam
Ethiopia's downstream neighbours Egypt and Sudan view the dam as a threat because of their dependence on Nile waters, while Addis Ababa deems it essential for its electrification and development.
The $4.2-billion (3.7-billion-euro) project is ultimately expected to produce more than 5,000 megawatts of electricity, more than doubling Ethiopia's electricity output.
The project has raised tensions with Egypt, an arid nation of nearly 100 million people, depends on the Nile for most of its water needs, including for agriculture.
Cairo claims a historic right to the river dating from a 1929 treaty between Egypt and Sudan, represented by colonial power Britain, that gave Egypt veto power over construction projects along the river.
A 1959 treaty boosted Egypt's allocation to around 66 percent of the river's flow, with 22 percent for Sudan.
Ethiopia was not party to those treaties and does not see them as valid.
Last year I saw this amazing thread, and said, the Water Wars came early, and indeed they came faster than I expected. I recommend you to read this.
Water will drive many conflicts in the coming two decades. Disruption will be quite…interesting to witness. One player, as usual, has been playing it the game on solo, basically, since earlier in this century.
China Leverages Tibetan Plateau’s Water Wealth
China has long pursued a broader strategy to corner natural resources. This has driven its expanding presence in faraway places, including Africa and Latin America. China’s newer obsession is freshwater, a life-creating and life-supporting resource whose growing shortages are casting a cloud over Asia’s economic future.
It is not just the Mekong: China is constructing dams on multiple international rivers just before they leave its territory. China’s efforts to reengineer cross-border natural flows are roiling its relations with downstream neighbors. Its occupation of the sprawling Tibetan Plateau enlarged its landmass by more than one-third and fundamentally altered Asia’s geostrategic realities. It made China the neighbor of India, Nepal, and Bhutan. Furthermore, China gained a throttlehold on the headwaters of Asia’s major river systems.
Beijing’s unilateralist actions extend beyond dam building. In 2017, China refused to supply hydrological data to India in violation of the terms of two bilateral agreements, underscoring its readiness to weaponize the sharing of water data on upstream river flows.
The withholding of data crimped India’s flood early-warning systems. That, in turn, resulted in preventable deaths as the monsoon-swollen Brahmaputra overran its banks, leaving a major trail of destruction, especially in India’s Assam state.
Countries will start becoming desperate, weighting the costs of exporting vs resource nationalism and securing the stability of one’s nation, which leads to small conflict, hybrid war, and disruption by non-nation state, and malicious actors.
Soaring lumber price adds nearly $19,000 to the cost of a new home
After falling back sharply from a record high in May of last year, lumber prices began climbing again in December.
They are now about 22% lower than that peak but still about three times their average pre-pandemic price, according to Random Lengths.
The National Association of Home Builders estimated the recent price jump added more than $18,600 to the price of a newly built home.
The global lumber prices are a mess, part because of legislation in some countries (Sweden being the most insane one), part’s logistical chaos, part nature (Canada floods), part reduce output from Canada producers, which affects the US, one of the biggest buyers of Canadian forest products.
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I definitely appreciate your articles on energy, resource scarcity and complexity. My sense is that extreme austerity is the next phase of the global putsch. All indications point to.. we are at the very edge of the seneca cliff. The silver lining is that this is all a natural cycle of energy dissipation and self-organization.. technocrats will also be limited by the thermodynamic collapse. I believe we should hold the line while building self-sustaining communities and making investments in off-grid systems, hand tools, seeds and healthy relationships. See you on the other side. Many thanks!
It is the series of volcanic eruptions which will unleash the miniapocalypse which has been planned. Then, the heat shock proteins and the isomeric antibodies will be activated to create the coronathrax.
Few scientists know that the Gizeh plateau (including the Gizeh pyramid) was covered in the recent past by sea water up to an altitude of 100 meters. It wasn't the Santorini island volcanic explosion. Here is the problem: the heliocentrists generally agree that this cosmic cataclysm was caused by a partial pole shift of the Earth. However, the calendar of the Gizeh pyramid based on the solstices and the equinoxes was not modified in the least (any pole shift would have removed this calendar very quickly). The mammoths were frozen instantly at a temperature equal to that of outer space.