This is frightening. The issue is that Cali has had hundred-year droughts in the past. Who knows if that might happen again soon. Why the hell would you plant cotton in places that don´t rain much?. I love it also how people talk about "the dams were never this low", yes possibly true, but we have 5x the population plus cotton and almond farming taking water from them now.
We are going to be in for a shock. Urea is hitting 2000 Euro/t in Europe. it used to be 200ish. I think ice berg salad will be something only hipster will buy for 8 bucks a pop just to talk about how environmental they are.
I am laughing my head off now at EV owners in Europe. It is now officially more expensive in most countries to fill up the EV than to put unleaded into your ICE car even with record gas prices.
We could produce all the food we wanted if we had nuclear everywhere. If we had cheap electricity we could have green houses, RO water pulled out of the ocean, getting phosphorous etc. We cannot do this with windmills and shitty solar panels from China.
Thank you for this piece. I have been slowly accumulating food for myself and animals. My Son thinks I nuts but I won’t risk it. This is dreadful. I am mourning already for the lose of life.
He basically predicted everything you are writing back in 2005, based on historical cycles and the Limits to Growth BAU modelling made in the 1970s.
His longer term forecast is that most of Europe will become Muslim dominated (after waves of mass migration/invasions from the Global South) with the Russians likely controlling eastern Europe again.
I'm well prepared for what is coming. My life plan is led by that LTG BAU model. Study that and you see the curves into the future.
I will definitely check his book, I don't remember if you were the first person to advise me to check out, but it not the first time someone tells me about it.
By what you wrote here I already agree with him, sadly the current trends and dynamics cemented the fact that Europe will not be European shortly.
If you like coffee you should definitely look into stocking because most of the highest global producer are facing many hurdles and even the "experts" are now stating supply will only normalize between 2024-2025 if "things go right".
Store in cupboard. Just when i see ground coffee in the discount aisle i buy like 8 packs at once.1 pack lasts me a week.found starbucks brand 75% off at 1.42 per pack.i get 14 cups roughly per pack.thats 10c a coffee verdus 3.50 in starbucks cafes.thats 35x.if coffee doubles in price thats 70x.if shtf coffee is currency. But 8 packs wont go far.it gets me over winter but what if its 10 tough winters is my point.
Just a few days ago I was thinking about our glasshouses heated by gas. My father works in agriculture and owns land and I had a discussion with him.
So basically:
-animal protein (diary, meat, eggs) are totally screwed
-crops price are through the roof not counting in the drying cost yet (which is beyond ridiculous) IF you can dry the crop as the driers must indicate and preallocate their electricity need in advance (3-4 weeks in advance) and harvest must be done before... Good luck
-out of season vegetables will disappear or will cost a liver..
At the moment what we can expect is 2 slice of potato with another slice between!
This is frightening. The issue is that Cali has had hundred-year droughts in the past. Who knows if that might happen again soon. Why the hell would you plant cotton in places that don´t rain much?. I love it also how people talk about "the dams were never this low", yes possibly true, but we have 5x the population plus cotton and almond farming taking water from them now.
We are going to be in for a shock. Urea is hitting 2000 Euro/t in Europe. it used to be 200ish. I think ice berg salad will be something only hipster will buy for 8 bucks a pop just to talk about how environmental they are.
I am laughing my head off now at EV owners in Europe. It is now officially more expensive in most countries to fill up the EV than to put unleaded into your ICE car even with record gas prices.
We could produce all the food we wanted if we had nuclear everywhere. If we had cheap electricity we could have green houses, RO water pulled out of the ocean, getting phosphorous etc. We cannot do this with windmills and shitty solar panels from China.
Thank you for this piece. I have been slowly accumulating food for myself and animals. My Son thinks I nuts but I won’t risk it. This is dreadful. I am mourning already for the lose of life.
Thanks, I know coffee beans degrade but when things get tough, it’s still coffee : )
Great post John.
You should read John Greers the Long Descent.
He basically predicted everything you are writing back in 2005, based on historical cycles and the Limits to Growth BAU modelling made in the 1970s.
His longer term forecast is that most of Europe will become Muslim dominated (after waves of mass migration/invasions from the Global South) with the Russians likely controlling eastern Europe again.
I'm well prepared for what is coming. My life plan is led by that LTG BAU model. Study that and you see the curves into the future.
I will definitely check his book, I don't remember if you were the first person to advise me to check out, but it not the first time someone tells me about it.
By what you wrote here I already agree with him, sadly the current trends and dynamics cemented the fact that Europe will not be European shortly.
Greer's Blog
https://www.ecosophia.net/
I am intrigued what is that model? From the book?
https://forecastingintelligence.org/2020/01/19/at-the-top-of-the-peak/
I wrote this at the beginning of 2020.
I check it out thanks
Reminds me to finish The Camp of the Saints…
Ive got rice and coffee for winter but maybe should have 2023 and 2024 stocked up for too!
If you like coffee you should definitely look into stocking because most of the highest global producer are facing many hurdles and even the "experts" are now stating supply will only normalize between 2024-2025 if "things go right".
Good idea coffee. What did you buy and how are tou storing?
Store in cupboard. Just when i see ground coffee in the discount aisle i buy like 8 packs at once.1 pack lasts me a week.found starbucks brand 75% off at 1.42 per pack.i get 14 cups roughly per pack.thats 10c a coffee verdus 3.50 in starbucks cafes.thats 35x.if coffee doubles in price thats 70x.if shtf coffee is currency. But 8 packs wont go far.it gets me over winter but what if its 10 tough winters is my point.
Chock Full of Nuts has 12-18 months expiration date. You can pick it up in large metal tins at wholesale clubs. Tins are good for storage and utility.
good write-up as always but you accidentally repeated several paragraphs at least.
I have warned multiple times I will often repeat myself. I don’t insert narrative in my posts. It is mostly analysis, simplified.
Some people still don’t accept things aren’t going as well as they think. Gotta bring the point home somehow.
Just a few days ago I was thinking about our glasshouses heated by gas. My father works in agriculture and owns land and I had a discussion with him.
So basically:
-animal protein (diary, meat, eggs) are totally screwed
-crops price are through the roof not counting in the drying cost yet (which is beyond ridiculous) IF you can dry the crop as the driers must indicate and preallocate their electricity need in advance (3-4 weeks in advance) and harvest must be done before... Good luck
-out of season vegetables will disappear or will cost a liver..
At the moment what we can expect is 2 slice of potato with another slice between!
Good luck!
I hate chem trails!