The first few paragraphs will serve as both a summary of all the older articles within this theme and an assessment of the current state of affairs. The Nova Swan Theory and Observations on Hybrid War are recommended reading to understand the tone and perspectives here.
Sometimes I recommend songs I feel fit the tone of BMO pieces. Here is one, and the other song I recommend, unlike the last ones, this may fit everyone’s taste.
This segment formed a vital component of an enduring series of articles featured in my Substack throughout the entirety of 2022. As evident from its title, the series takes a complexity-oriented perspective when analyzing global events. Originally named “Beyond Mathematical Probability,” the title encapsulated the circumstances that were unfolding and those yet to manifest.
While absent from writing new articles for the time being, to steer clear of repetition, and focus on evaluating how the previous analysis and forecasts unfolded, while keeping an abundance of annotations and observations. As forewarned by a friend “There are more psy ops on these businesses than in politics sometimes, pay close attention.”, and I did, and I came to the same conclusion. An adage from a former chapter of life echoed in my mind: “Sentiment moves market”, implying any data wields influence, yet it remains a fractional component within the decision-making processes of “investors”, sentiment itself is what drives the decision.
Months later, many cascades, linear and non-linear alike rippled through society and there was no global shortage of food as many feared, myself included, dependent exactly on what type of grain, or food stuff you choose, the usual global main producers were “short”, but other regions served as buffers, so overall if a nation had money or international loan capacity, they bought food. Other aspects of BMO played out as forecasted.
In the wake of these months, it became evident that the ramifications of the critical choices made over the past two years reverberated into a myriad of cascade effects, leading to shortages, and fostering inflationary trends. These outcomes, intricately linked with the cascading series of events, were fundamentally spawned by the lockdown measures initiated in 2020 and the subsequent decisions that followed suit.
The road so far and the path ahead
As many of my readers are likely aware, a notable shift in weather patterns began in 2020, particularly in the aftermath of the extensive global lockdowns. This assertion has been, persistently, my main argument regarding the unpredictable weatherr around the planet, and in the process of simplification for easier understanding, it all boils down to less pollution = less aerosols = change in global weather patterns, this is significant and has been talked about in recent months in regards to maritime (ship) pollution and how all the logistical nightmare experienced in the last 3 years led to warmer seas. Warmer seas, similar to changes in aerosol particles (pollution) will definitely affect and shift weather, globally.
Thus, this year we experienced a significant weather shift affecting farming, In China, the severity of storms reached a similar point as the last 2 years, and the heat was so intense it killed animals and ravaged its farms, heath that brought storms that flooded its farmland thus threatening food security, one of the biggest issues in China, and one the Chinese government takes very seriously. If you don’t recall China has brought half of the world’s grain production for 3 years straight. Analogous to its approach towards fuel, China employs its considerable resources to outbid all other nations for essential commodities it cannot produce domestically, showing little regard for the inflationary impact on other nations.
Similar monsoons severely impacted India, the world’s biggest rice exporter, producing as much as 40% of the global rice trade, followed by Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and the US. A central concept introduced in this series last year was “Resource Nationalism” when a country decides to completely stop trade by any means necessary as a tool to achieve security, thus when faced with inflation, India outright banned rice exports. Third-world and developing economies, consistent with most of the world’s population all rely on rice as a staple, so a rice ban from one of its top exporters already sent shockwaves and inflationary trends globally.
Following India’s decision, the UAE decided to ban the export and re-export of rice. Adding to the pile of building storms, geopolitics, and psychological operations aside, after so much pressure built by Western sanctions, Russia did the predictable. The Russian government decided not to renew the Black Sea Grain Deal, a deal between Ukraine, the West as an intermediary, and Russia with the goal of facilitating and securing the movement of grains and exporting routes, followed by an escalation of hybrid warfare tactics, when Russia decided to hit both Ukrainian exporting facilites, grain storage, and ports.
The fertilizer situation became slightly more stable to become uncertain again, therefore impacting prices and practices.
Laura Cross, director of market intelligence at the International Fertilizer Association (IFA), said the impact of sanctions, high raw material costs and export restrictions led to the prospect of a dramatically reduced fertilizer supply, and higher prices led to demand destruction in affordability-driven markets.
“Since then, some markets have stabilized, namely nitrogen and phosphate, while others remain disrupted, in the case of potash,” Cross said.
The IFA’s latest Medium-Term Outlook estimates that globally, fertilizer use decreased by close to 3% in 2021, falling to 194.7 million tonnes, and by close to 5% in 2022, falling to 185.1 million tonnes. Global fertilizer use in 2022 was 15 million tonnes lower than the record-high level of 200.2 million tonnes reached in 2020, according to the IFA. The picture dramatically varies across the key market.
“In absolute terms, East Asia and South Asia led the global decrease in the two-year period, accounting for almost 60% of the reduction,” Cross said. “In relative terms, three regions reduced their fertilizer use by at least 10% over the two years: West Asia (down 17%), West and Central Europe (down 15%) and Africa (down 14%).”
One of the main arguments of this series was how the energy shortages would persist for years, regardless of who produced how much of anything, but especially LNG, the driving fuel of the European economy, by the mathematical fact LNG carrier manufacturers were booked for years, and in certain locations, LNG storage and consumption is also a problem. Germany now faces the real risk of gast shortages until early 2027, leading exporters such as Qatar will only “sell” LNG if countries sign long-term contracts and delivery dates are set to…2027, Latin America's largest LNG exporter, Trinidad, and Tobago aims to restart its idled LNG unit in…2027.
No matter how one attempts to interpret the situation, the trends remain ironclad, and significant market fluctuation on both prices and supply will remain unstable, prone to “spot market” dynamics (the spot market is akin to the highest bidder, short-term contracts), and leaving countries open to disruptions susceptible to hybrid war tactics.
As a byproduct and as forecast, the EU’s economic engine is now going through deindustrialization. When I first proposed such a dynamic, such an analytical point was disregarded as unlikely, it is at this moment a trendy topic being discussed in many publications, but I find this article by Politico does a good job explaining the situation.
Germany’s biggest companies are ditching the fatherland.
Chemical giant BASF has been a pillar of German business for more than 150 years, underpinning the country’s industrial rise with a steady stream of innovation that helped make “Made in Germany” the envy of the world.
But its latest moonshot — a $10 billion investment in a state-of-the-art complex the company claims will be the gold standard for sustainable production — isn’t going up in Germany. Instead, it’s being erected 9,000 kilometers away in China.
Another point of contention between me and many others was the oil situation. I attempt to demonstrate, time and time again how feeble and fragile the global situation found itself, but similar to the grains, oil is fertile ground for psychological operations and manipulation, but the reality of supply and demand persists, especially the hybrid aspect of Oil. The weaponization and alliance of major producers constrain global supply to pressure the US economy.
Global oil inventories are projected to fall to an 8-year low, while global demand reaches a record high of 103 million barrels a day for the first time, and the Saudis led a recent supply cut to add (or remove hehe) fuel to the fire. Japan and the US are now experiencing high gas prices, something that inevitably puts severe pressure on inflation feeding another, large or small, cost of living crisis, pressuring local and global economies alike.
If you are a long-time reader, especially one who enjoyed the BMO series, by now you are asking yourself “Hold up. Wait a minute, this sounds awfully similar to 2022, with minor changes here and there to the dynamics.” and indeed, your assessment would be spot-on. Do you want to really scratch your head and smell a whiff of conspiracy (a peculiar vernacular choice now for hybrid war strategy) ?
Consider this: What if I told you 3 of the most important maritime logistical points on the planet stopped almost at the same time ? A forest fire shut down Turkey’s Dardanelles Strait, one of the most important maritime logistical chokepoints on the planet, traffic was suddenly stopped in the Suez Canal after two boats crashed, now open again. After suffering extensive drought, the Panama Canal extended its transit restrictions for at least another 10 months, after already restricting traffic to some levels since the start of the year.
Compounding these challenges, opening up the US for hybrid warfare moves from China, and Russia (again), mega-retailers are returning to 'just-in-time' inventory strategies, killing the 'just in case' promise of the pandemic's supply chain snarl. What do all of these data points mean ? In simple words, different circumstances guarantee similar circumstances as 2021 and especially poignant to this piece, 2022, With recent geopolitical realignments, including the expansion of BRICS, more substantial shifts and strategic (hybrid) maneuvers appear inevitable in a world characterized by fragmentation. Lower agricultural yields, escalating fuel expenses, heightened inflation—these factors collectively contribute to a further surge in inflationary trends, thereby exacerbating the cost of living and intensifying pressure on all fronts.
Here is a tidbit of information that I don’t think deserves a small substack, but it does play a significant and larger role in the coming elite-political trends. Lately, colossal wildfires engulfed large swaths of the world. Which scenario seems more plausible, the global scam that is “climate change” or arson ? In Canada, Turkey arsonists were apprehended. Over 70 arsonists were arrested after the historical fires in Greece. Ecoterrorism is one of the most overlooked threats by both law enforcement and Intelligence services. Remarkably, it functions as a potent tool for advocates of the "climate" narrative to wage narrative warfare on a global scale, inducing shifts in public sentiment and law enforcement priorities.
I may write a continuation of this piece covering other dynamics, but for the next couple of weeks, I must focus on finishing what I intended to before. The information present here, and revising older BMOs can be a useful sketch for a roadmap towards the near future. Everything changes, yet dynamics remain the same. In the past 2 years, events between August, November, and December dictated the entire non-linear cascade and dynamics of the next year, and what has now become a feedback loop, we are experiencing another ripple of the first impact.
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While I don't play anywhere near as much video-games as I did 10-15 years ago, Cyberpunk 2077 became one of my all time favorites in the past year.
I am physically exhausted so any replies, e-mail responses or fixing any synthatic or grammatical error will be done at some point tomorrow.
I wish all readers a great weekend. Go have some good vibes.
“As many of my readers are likely aware, a notable shift in weather patterns began in 2020”
Yes the weather pattern shifted as a matter of fact the absence of anthropogenic aerosols actually raised the planets temperature which was rather embarrassing for the green house gas/global warming ideologues. Not to cast any coolness on your brilliant interpretation of world events but I wonder how much of our weather and climate anomalies (as well as manufactured societal distractions) are related to the planet’s weakening magnetosphere? Solar forcing (particularly charged particles) is now being evidenced to be a more influential factor on climate and weather than ideological captured carbon science is willing to admit. Add to this the long term ramifications of solar forced climate change on agriculture, public health, and national security and all of sudden the Nova Swan has grown in size and stature. Maybe all this manufactured mass hysteria is just a waning attempt to keep us all from looking up.