Things are starting to cascade at an alarming pace, with other business to attend to, it’s literally happening faster than can I map and write about. Don’t know what to make of it, so you make out of it whatever you prefer.
Voicing something other industry and investment leader have been talking for a while, the CEO of the old largest sovereign fund talks inflation being stronger than what most expect, and to last longer and affect gains.
Which is a reality for whoever reads my posts or keep a decent track of events themselves, no wonder I am starting to get e-mails on what/how to invest or hedge for inflation. Average Joe themselves can feel something is up, is wrong, and it’s about to go down. Hard. Inflation will get exponentially worse in multiple sectors.
Like the fuel and energy sectors, with prices that keeps going up, which feed the inflation, the shortage, everything. Energy is what keep any type of system alive.
HSBC now talks the things I have been mentioning for weeks, how China (stupid) Covid policy threatens any type of global recovery, it’s compounding stress into the system, intensifying shortages, and it is creating quite a few tipping points that many will realize 12-18 weeks down the road. Which is also affecting the chip shortage… something I warned about…over…and over…
Another piece talking about conflict in Ukraine and it’s (systemic) impacts.
Something that some people might’ve heard or seen today was this.
From those who don’t know. McMaster-Carr Supply Company is a private American supplier of hardware, tools, raw materials, industrial materials, and maintenance equipment. It is a critical infrastructure company, one that is often reliable and not caught up by sudden changes and shortage. People think that is unexpected, but… it isn’t.
You can easily find posts in Reddit from September of 2020 hinting that a screw shortage was not only coming, but intensifying.
There were signals everywhere, like this recent one. Will the Construction Materials Shortage Continue in 2022?
Anyone with some common sense or some IPL, or complex system interest could see this coming miles away. Alas, we find ourselves in a course that takes strength, speed and out of the box thinking to get ourselves out…
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World’s largest wealth fund warns ‘permanent’ inflation will hit returns
Equities and bonds to suffer as steep rise in rates becomes lasting feature of economy, says Norwegian oil fund boss
The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund has warned that investors face years of low returns as the surge in inflation becomes a permanent feature of the global economy. Nicolai Tangen, chief executive of Norway’s $1.3tn oil fund, told the Financial Times he was “the team leader for team permanent” in the fierce debate over whether the jump in rates was transitory or a lasting threat.
Tangen said the oil fund, which owns the equivalent of 1.5 per cent of every listed company in the world, thought inflation “could be stronger than what is generally expected” as the world experiences high demand and lingering disruption to supply chains.
Global Gasoline Markets Soaring as Oil Surges to 7-Year High
Profits from making the motor fuel strong from U.S. to Europe
Energy Aspects sees consumption at pre-virus levels this year
Oil refiners across the globe are making robust profits from producing gasoline, with the demand outlook signaling continuing strength just as crude futures soar to the highest level in seven years.
Disruptions in China can lead to ‘ripple-effects’ across global supply chain, says HSBC
KEY POINTS
China’s zero-Covid restrictions will impact global supply chain recovery as any small disruption in the country will likely lead to “ripple effects” across the world, according to the head of shipping at HSBC.
The pandemic has revealed “how lean the supply chain has become. And there is little margin of error,” said Parash Jain, global head of shipping and ports equity research at HSBC.
China’s zero-Covid restrictions will impact global supply chain recovery as any small disruption in the country will likely lead to “ripple effects” across the world, according to the head of shipping at HSBC.
Covid cases have been reported in the key port cities of Shenzhen, Tianjin and Ningbo, as well as the industrial hub of Xi’an, resulting in lockdowns and curbs in the largest port hubs.
As long as China maintains this very strict zero-Covid stance, we cannot rule out a disruption time to time as the year progress.
Parash Jain
HSBC
Fewer China Flights May Worsen Chip Shortage With Port Snarled
Air-freight costs for semiconductors could climb 30%: Keelvar
Infected cargo handling facility worker sparked mass testing
Congestion at the world’s biggest port in Shanghai is being compounded by reductions in air-cargo capacity at the city’s main airport, a situation that’s likely to raise costs further for the semiconductor industry.
It’s now taking more than two months for goods to get shipped by sea from Shanghai to the U.S., a wait time that’s too long for the crucial chips used in everything from cars to computers, according to Keelvar, a European-based supply-chain services provider whose customers include Samsung Electronics Co., Logitech International SA and Siemens AG.
What Would War in Ukraine Mean for Oil, Gas and Food?
Tension over Ukraine has been sending natural gas prices higher for weeks, putting European policymakers on edge. But an escalation of the conflict could also hit a raft of raw materials crucial to the global economy -- and prices are already surging.
Oil, wheat, aluminum, nickel and palladium are all trading higher as the standoff continues, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin says he doesn’t plan to use the troops he’s massing on the border to invade. European governments are already contending with an energy crunch, surging inflation, and a cost-of-living crisis
You may want to reach out to Igor...
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/cnn-global-warming-causes-cold-winters
I think your thoughts may intersect on climate change and inflation. Thanks for your insightful thoughts!
How to invest for it?