The drums of war (with China)

And the coming Ukraine "peace talks)

I would expect that most of my readers have been paying attention and consuming other sources of information in regard to many subjects, so I won’t delve deep into the following, but superficially mention a few of the last meaningful changes.

In the last few weeks, Ukraine has been heavily pressured by Russia and its extensive use of its mercenary forces (Wagner, this is an entire can of worms on its own, perhaps I will one day write about the private military business), with palpable change in narrative. The West has been draining itself from weapon systems to ammunition of all sorts, to such a degree that all levels of the defense industry found out the hard way how slow, and inefficient the current “war logistics” finds itself, since producing and rebuilding the stock to proper levels will take years. This will be an important variable later on.

Therefore there is already preparation by using the media towards “peace”.

Source

Independent of how the Ukraine proxy war turns out, the Western elite and its political puppets need another massive distraction to hide two of its latest and biggest failures. The war, and the adverse effects and societal impacts of both Covid policies, and the mRNA vaccines. They have been shifting slowly for a while, but now the shift is undeniable and easily visible.

Exclusive: US seeks allies' backing for possible China sanctions over Ukraine war

White House scales back plans to regulate U.S. investments in China

A planned executive order is expected to focus largely on transparency, and prohibit only new investments in Chinese semiconductor firms.

The news article above is rather contradictory, but that was the end result of the blowback when the American government announced earlier that day on regulating US investments in China, and backed off later in the afternoon Karin Jean-Pierre had another of her gaffe when stating “US President Biden and German Chancellor Scholz will discuss challenges from the "People's Republic of Russia", certain talking about the People’s Republic of China.

But the adversarial rhetoric took a turn to eleven when within 24 hours of each other starting with the Department of Energy (DoE) and many other agencies including the FBI suddenly agreed and made public announcements on the Origins of SARS-CoV-2. Every single agency is now in agreement that it came from the WIV.

In case my readers are not aware, while the name is rather vague, the DoE is responsible for numerous biological programs, it is the de facto covert arm for biological (and otherwise high-tech) warfare, and it has a much easier time going under the radar of oversight than its sister agencies. Easier still if they use subcontractors and private partnerships, which incidentally they use, and if you dig you can find rather interesting connections… alas not the focus here.

I have tweeted a lot about the following strategy, since early 2021, the US government would scapegoat China when the time was propitious or when attention was needed elsewhere, attempt to bait the rest of the West into conflict, and at the same time sweep away any involvement of the WIV counterparts in the US government. Anyone who has read the Beyond Mathematical Odds series on substack is very aware of my position and observations on how China has been waging a hybrid war for a while now, and recently I wrote a substack about it, although more introductory than something else.

So, rather “coincidentally” shortly after blaming China for Covid-19, many events took place, a few derailments, a few chemical spills, and fires ending up with HazMat teams at the locations, and this event, in particular, is of hybrid nature.

Fiery Maryland tanker truck crash kills driver, damages three nearby homes

You may ask why this event in particular over all others ? This event took place a few miles from Fort Detrick, and once again, for those who are not aware, FD is a central player in the development, and anything related to biological programs, it is an “open secret” at this point. A message and a veiled threat are the underlying of the event, and before someone comes to argue with me on this particular matter, I am talking from professional experience. Not being able to discern anything is one of the core tenets of hybrid warfare/5th-6th gen warfare.

China has a very advanced biological weapons program, one that is derived, and to a small degree arguably a byproduct of the US biological initiatives.

The entire Western structure is now voicing the same war rhetoric, with Australia adopting such syntax with rather quick speed.

Source

Believe it or not, I am not one for alarmism, but a war with China in the foreseeable future (2023-2026) would be anything but a complete, absolute disaster to the entire planet, not only it would instantly affect the entire supply chain of microchips and semiconductors, but China and Russia together control sizable portions of what basically entails to any material we need to keep the “world turning”. The following is a graph I was saving for my next BMO, but here it is.

China and Russia also are among the top fertilizer producer, the top refiners, among the top anything else. China is becoming the world's top shipbuilder, and quite sincerely the list could go on for a while. A small room for argument exists on war at an industrial scale, a type of war the US hasn’t waged for a few decades now, yet to wage war, one needs funding and money, and speed.

From here.

China, by contrast, is able to deliver capabilities far more quickly. In a July 2021 address, Maj. Gen. Cameron Holt, then deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, estimated that China is procuring munitions and other high-end weapons systems “five-to-six-times” faster than the US. 

A third shock as regards US ability to counter China is only now dawning, according to Flournoy, a potential future contender for Secretary of Defense: the presence of Chinese-made components throughout defense supply chains that create “unacceptable dependencies if not vulnerabilities.”

“Most prime contractors can’t even tell you how much Chinese content is in their systems, ranging from semiconductors to displays to nuts and bolts,” she said.

The Defense Department acknowledged that the defense industrial base faces many of the same supply-chain challenges as other sectors. “Lead times from ordering a component to delivery drive production timelines,” said spokesman Jeff Jurgensen.

Catch Up: China Is Getting New Weapons Faster Than the U.S.

The Chinese military is acquiring weapons “five to six times” faster than the United States.

Not only are the Chinese getting weapons faster, but they are also out-spending the United States military in terms of attaining new capabilities. “In purchasing power parity, they spend about one dollar to our 20 dollars to get to the same capability,” Major General Holt explained. “We are going to lose if we can’t figure out how to drop the cost and increase the speed in our defense supply chains.”

I want to bring to your attention this BMO in specific, reading on its entirety would bring a few interesting points to look back, but the focus here is the cyber aspect, just use the search feature in your device for the words “cyber-espionage” and read from there to the end of the piece.

Beyond Mathematical Odds VI - The Shadow War

Substantial amounts of infrastructure at every level of society use Chinese-made electronic parts, and the use of refined tools such as the one described above is most likely more widespread than even experts would assume.

Even if one was to relegate the advancements China made in cyber warfare in the last decade (just read about the Daxin tool in the substack below or on Google), I would like you to remember this from this moment forward. China has the most number of spies embedded at every level of society in many countries, with the number one spot being the US of A, and the number is estimated to be close to 30.000. Thirty thousand. Chinese citizens and scientists have been arrested for a myriad of espionage-related crimes, but the most pertinent in my opinion were the Chinese citizens and scientists arrested for shipping biological materials to labs in China.

These were the ones that got caught, how many were not ? Before ever thinking about war, much needs to change domestically.

The following archived piece is a decent read on the subject.

Corporate consolidation across the American defense industry has left the Pentagon with fewer arms manufacturers. Shipyards are struggling to produce the submarines the Navy says it needs to counter China’s larger naval fleet, and weapon designers are rushing to catch up with China and Russia in developing superfast hypersonic missiles.

The threat is mounting. Beijing has in recent years shifted the security terrain in its favor in the areas around China. In the South China Sea, it has built artificial islands and fortified them with military installations to assert control over the strategic waterway and deny the U.S. Navy freedom to roam.

Decades of ever bigger military budgets, including a 7% boost in spending this year, have improved the lethality of China’s air force, missiles and submarines, and better training has created a more modern force from what was once a military of rural recruits. China is developing weapons and other capabilities to destroy an opponent’s satellites, the Pentagon says, and its cyberhacking presents a threat to infrastructure.

The CIA said President Xi Jinping has set 2027 as a deadline for the Chinese military to be ready to carry out a Taiwan invasion, though it said Mr. Xi and the military have doubts whether Beijing could currently do so.

And now a personal observation from myself, voiced by a few other “insiders” as time went by, echoed more lately than in other years. Using propaganda and information warfare, both overseas and domestically is understandable from a warfare perspective. You can propagandize, and incentivize the recruitment of your own military and intelligence programs by using propaganda, you can also raise the morale of your own forces. But a massive problem arises when the new generations of said intelligence officers buy their own propaganda.

Getting your own subculture hijacked by your own meme is a sign that somewhere, something went very wrong, and miscalculations were made. The amount of arrogance and sheer hubris in Intelligence (either public or private, since private Intel is just a revolving door for Intel agencies) misguiding all levels of policy is staggering when looking either from the inside or the outside.

Such misconceptions of your own capabilities do affect policy and end up having enormous costs after the fact often relegated to other parties but the culprit one. A lot of work must be done here before anything else, before engaging in a war that will only lead to global chaos, and that chaos is where cygnet swans are born, and state, non-state, and rogue actors will seize the moment, something I have been concerned about for quite a while.

China also has no qualms about waging hybrid war (in their military literature they refer to it as unrestricted warfare), and they will most certainly NOT wage war as most of the world expects, given its demographic collapse, and when faced with sanctions and disruptions the real threat of starving 500 million of its own population, one could expect Xi to perhaps adopt the YOLO strategy. A look into his history (the fate of his family) would be a good place to start.

Cygnet swan was a word proposed by a nice follower on Twitter to describe small, largely seemly unconnected events that end up creating a black swan. Also yes, I have argued and proposed (but not explained in detail) that black swans can most certainly be engineered.

On a personal level I don’t know what is worse, our genocidal Malthusian elites, high on their own hubris wanting to wage war against China for numerous superfluous reasons, or the WHO treaty. Both of these are a global threat to the life of any average person, and opposing both is the bare minimum one should do. This brings at least initial attention to the problems with a war with China.


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