October Surprise "Fest"
Many swans, none black
It has been a while here on The Fourth Option, but that is the case with any form of content that verges or hinges on forecasting, you need the events you forecast to play out, so you can analyze the data, confirm your previous assessments, measure accuracy, and forecast some more. TFO is quality over quantity, and a few personal reasons too.
Alas, events came to pass. Among the predictable events unfolding in the past many weeks, Israel's conflict against Hezbollah expanded as a quasi-regional war, and per one of my articles and as all signs pointed towards, it is now expanding its conflict into Lebanon. After bombing strategic locations in Lebanon, doing precise hunter-killer strikes, Israel invaded Lebanon and is already facing its first few official losses, with 8 soldiers killed in a clash with Hezbollah.
There are other events, widely talked about in the media in between this expansion, such as Israel’s covert supply chain attack by inserting explosives in pagers used by its adversaries, but this topic is reserved for a distinct and separate article. As a response to the escalation both in Gaza and elsewhere, after postponing and living off bravado for weeks to no end (becoming a minor joke among certain circles in social media), Iran attacked Israel.
Unlike Iran’s last missile and drone wave attack, which in my assessment was purely theatrics to save face regionally, a common accord between Iran and Israel mediated and strong-armed by the US and Western allies, this attack was “real”. Iran used close to 300 million dollars worth of munitions, and many of these were high-altitude, high-velocity ballistic missiles.
These are known to be a pain to deal with for any modern Air Defense system on an average day. Another level of pain in the nether regions, when it is close to a saturation attack, is when you send a barrage of missiles toward a target, which makes it extremely hard for its automated defense system to prioritize targets. Modern war has been also a war of propaganda for the past 100 years, and this wouldn’t be different. At first, Israel minimized the attack, but now its military is slowly trickling out information. Here is a picture of the strikes in the Israeli Air Force base Nevatim.
While damage to critical infrastructure was borderline minimal, as far as public knowledge goes, and no Israeli lives were lost (but a poor, lost Palestinian by detritus…lol) the message behind the attack was received. Iran was able to hit specific roads with logistical importance, military bases and got quite close to Mossad’s HQ. The message is simple “We can get to you”. Most of the outcomes so far were predictable if you pay attention to multiple sources and signs, now we are entering the “no man’s territory”.
The potential for real escalation and cascading into a wider regional war is real. Israeli leadership consistently signals it may attack Iran’s critical infrastructure, not just its nuclear program, but its chemical base. The chemical industry is the most basic need for any nation. Iran’s oil industry is also rather concentrated.
And as I wrote this article, Biden made it public he was discussing with the Israelis a possible strike on Iran's oil facilities. To add salt to injury Israel hit a Russian air base in Syria tonight, the reason is that Russia uses Syria to funnel arms (ballistic, hypersonic, and advanced missile tech) to Iran, and it gets drones and drone tech from Iran (which has one of the most advanced drone programs in the world, and CHEAP).
The current global conflict dynamics reflect precisely the scenarios I wrote down in 2018, 2019, and 2020, where a myriad of conflicts based on national interests and old rivalries surface, become disproportional, spill over regionally, and now have a real chance to spill over, reach Ukraine and become a global war, which is a completely distinct form of war than World War.
An attack on Iranian oil production and infrastructure will lead to a global oil crisis. No oil will leave the Middle East, Russian oil is under sanction and Putin would gladly NOT sell if Middle Eastern nations completely stop the flow, and China would stop refining. The world can not accommodate another oil crisis as we experienced in the pandemic, the entire system is too fractured, it is constantly breaking down from the attempt to catch up, and a lot of geopolitics from OPEC almost rules over the market. This would certainly cause a global economic crash, something certain elites are hellbent on.
Also as an unorthodox addendum, which I only told 3 people about it. I had 3 takes about the Israel-Gaza-Iran conflict, with the first two being of no major importance, the third take is the one I want to share. The Schizo Take. This is purely, entirely based on gut-instinct, many tend to read deeper into certain parts of my writing, on this, don’t.
To me, sometimes, it feels that some major force, either political or economic, perhaps Israel’s own elites or external forces are using this conflict as aims to achieve a greater goal. Using Israel as a viable sacrificial pawn. With US support, Israel can win its regional expansive war, but the cost will be too high. The potential for global cascading into a vortex of unconventional and conventional armed conflicts
On the other side, Iran’s proxy persistently disrupts and “dominates” the Red Sea, it attacked a US warship without repercussion, and it resumed its attacks on ships, the Yemeni Armed Forces also targeted 3 American destroyers days ago using 23 projectiles, ballistic, cruise missiles and drones. The Houthis also suddenly have access to hypersonic missile technology and this isn’t something most nations will suddenly have access to. The most likely scenario is the same as described before, Iran mediates Russian tech transfer to the Houthis, as a proxy/disruption tool.
A regional war, where sabotage and targeted attacks on critical infrastructure will cascade into a significant disaster for global logistics, oil production, and the world economy. As I stated a couple of times, either my hook (design) or crook (chaos derived from complex system non-linear dynamics) a repeat of 2020 on almost all modern life matters remains on the maps.
The case of the Houthis is also one to be studied for other reasons besides a small, mobile, quasi-decentralized force disrupting a global choke point because of the how. War is all about logistics and resources. And as much as I like to consume high-quality hopium on ultra-advanced warfare, the reality is cheap and accessible war beats “advanced” war.
That is what has been observed in Ukraine, cheap, mass-produced, make-shift drones are being used en mass, and for a time many of the components were sourced from AliExpress, earning the conflict the nickname “Alibaba war”.
Another predictable (for me) event was the Longshoreman’s strike, ergo the port worker’s strike. “Was” by the simple fact that it came, it caused one of the biggest social media backlashes this year, and it ended after 3 days, hours ago. This is a long conversation that deserves an entire article on its own, but it was a poor strategy from the ILA (Port Work Union), a union that had leaned Left for decades, deciding to strike before a presidential election and during one of the worst natural disaster North Carolina suffered in its history.
There is a lot of discussion on how inefficient American ports are on social media right now. You can read a lot more about the impact of the strike in this Sea Intelligence report, but as a matter of comparison, all US ports rank pretty bad in the global ranking, they are utterly inefficient, unloading from ship to port is quick, the problem is port to customer and elsewhere. And one of the main reasons for this strike was fighting against automation. Here is a Chinese port, fully automated, that beats all US ports, almost all combined.
But as we do it here, we look through the complexity. These 3 days alone were enough to create a small backlog of ships and, therefore a significant backlog of containers, both in-country and out-of-country. This comes down to what I described before, disrupting complex systems without any type of tracking picking up the signal, because the strike alone won’t do much as a disruptive tool, but in the last 8 months alone many of the most important ports suffered an accident or disruption in some manner. Plus the disruption in a major logistical choke point in the Red Sea.
One way or the other, non-linear dynamics are playing themselves to replicate 2020 during 2025. So we add a potential oil crisis, an expanding conflict in the Middle East, another conflict in Europe between a major nation-state and a now quasi-rogue state, unrest in Africa, and division in the West. These dynamics alone would be bad. But what about a true black swan ?
The disaster North Carolina suffered goes well beyond the unbelievable level of governmental incompetence and malfeasance at every level, besides the significant economic loss, and pain residents are going through, what many missed is the news above. The world's only high-purity quartz mine has been shut down indefinitely.
This is one of the few mines in the entire planet where you can mine high-purity quartz, a key component, critical to the production of semiconductors. A significant disruption in the supply and production of these crucibles means you can not produce semiconductors. Thankfully taking time to write these pay off and one of the two companies that mine Spruce Pine made a statement.
"We operate a long supply chain and like many organisations we added more focus to our resilience planning post-Covid. As a result, we have established strong levels of feed stock in Norway to supply our purification operations," Haugen added. "Coupled with safety stocks of finished products and those that exist at different levels throughout the supply chain, we do not anticipate any critical situation for our downstream industries in the short or medium term."
Still, similar dynamics have played themselves in regards to the semiconductor market, some unforeseen event or circumstance affects the entire, extremely complex supply chain (it has almost 4000 steps, and many of the companies involved in the supply chain are unique, there is 1 of 1). The semiconductor supply chain has learned resilience throughout the pandemic but yet… how many black swans can our system tackle before something breaking ? I guess we will find out in 2025.
There are many other topics to cover in relation to the Fourth Option and I intend to do so in the next 4 weeks. Alas, we barely started October and surprises are many, God only knows what else may happen this month. Or this quarter. I really wouldn’t want to be Taiwan right abouuuuuuut… now.
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"To me, sometimes, it feels that some major force, either political or economic, perhaps Israel’s own elites or external forces are using this conflict as aims to achieve a greater goal. Using Israel as a viable sacrificial pawn. "
Ding, ding, ding! We have someone on the right track.
One only needs to study the very old history of the cabal running this world; their aims, goals, agendas and tactics...the history of the founding of Israel...and their extremely well-publicized (literally IN YOUR FACE) visible plans (like the greater israel project, Great Reset/"Sustainable Development Goals", UN's Pact of the Future, etc), to easily deduce that this is the case. In fact, people are willfully ignorant at this point, NOT to see it.
The narratives, deception, lies and theater all hide the true aims of this NWO cabal; ancient bloodlines with their occultic agendas that are fast approaching a death-spiraling crescendo of completion.
I've come to the conclusion that it's so hard for most to see, because they are spiritually blind on some level, and just can't fathom the deception and evil that are at the core of what is running our world. Two kinds of blindness are easily combined, so that those who do not see really appear to see what is not.
Red pill and awaken from the matrix, my beautiful, slumbering people...while you still have time. There is little left.
What do you mean by a repeat of 2020..?😊