Beyond mathematical probability - Hybrid war
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Like most events and technology today, this will be a dual use post. Part fertilizer and it’s cascade effects, part wtf it's all hybrid warfare now.
Earlier yesterday a particular piece of news from Russia started spreading, far, wide and fast, because the implications are quite telling. Specially for anyone who reads my Substack for the last 8 weeks.
Russia stops the export of ammonium nitrate
Today, deliveries of ammonium nitrate abroad from Russia are stopped: the government has imposed a two-month ban on them.
“From February 2, a two-month ban on the export of ammonium nitrate comes into force. The corresponding government decree has been signed,” its statement told.
This decision was made to provide domestic farmers with mineral fertilizers for spring field work. An additional need for them arose in a number of regions of the country, in particular, in the North Caucasian and Southern federal districts.
“This is a temporary measure, the remaining volume can be exported from April 2, when Russian enterprises will receive ammonium nitrate in the required volume, and the demand for it in the domestic market will peak,” said First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov.
This is by no way, as with every single cascade effect of the Nova Swan, new. It is a long time coming.
Russia Imposes Fertilizer Export Quotas to Control Inflation
>5 NOVEMBER 2021<
Russia announced plans to impose export quotas on nitrogen fertilizers to ensure domestic supplies and contain price inflation. The move could further support surging fertilizer prices worldwide and tighten global fertilizer markets already searching for supply.
Was it just to contain inflation, though ?
EU decision on Russian ammonium nitrate ‘puts higher costs on farmers’ – IFA
October 2, 2020
A recent decision by the European Commission to continue measures to prevent ammonium nitrate from Russia being ‘dumped’ on the EU market has been labelled “a further blow to European agriculture”.
For quite a while, I have been insisting the EU is quite literally hellbent on collapsing itself. Misguided policies and governmental incompetence are abounding, and the lack of awareness by Intelligence services would is laughable to me.
There were signals very early on.
China’s Curbs on Fertilizer Exports to Worsen Global Price Shock
19 October 2021
Government asking for additional inspections on exports
Concerns grow over impact of energy prices on food production
China's major fertiliser makers to suspend exports amid tight supplies
JULY 29, 2021
Talk about timing and coincidences, huh. The more skeptic person would say this is just an effect of the pandemic, whip effect… Well, talking about coincidences…
Thousands forced to evacuate over explosion fears after fire at Winston-Salem fertilizer plant
This plant had a lot of finished fertilizer and amonium nitrate, a chemical used to make fertilizer. Well, color me surpised. This is the same chemical involved in the massive explosion in Beirut, the chemical came from Georgia, but the companies were linked to…Russia…
Before we go down this road, why the current fertilizer situation is so important ? Besides reading a lot of my earlier posts, one of the main reasons is this one, and the tweet below.
How Today’s Fertilizer Prices Could Reshape The Industry
“In terms of nitrogen we have been very dependent upon the Chinese supply in some categories. And that’s reasonable because they were always cheapest. And we did see some of our capacity around the world kind of go offline, because they were just going to compete with the Chinese,” Dr. Swanson says. “Now, the Chinese changed their mind to say, they're really not willing to sell this product at that price anymore.”
“The industry is learning right now. I think it might like to have two or three more supply points around the world going forward, even if they're a little bit more marginally expensive just to have greater stability,
A reminder that China has actually bought half of the world grains last year.
I want you to go into this link, List of Explosions on Wikipedia and click on 2020`s. Call me crazy, but that goes beyond cascade failure, if one inclined to really think it through, it does feel like a deliberate move to create a tipping point into a hyper connected system. I could argue, warfare by other means.
You could spend a few hours on Google News too.
Another list that will make you scratch your head even more is the list of rail accidents.
German oil terminals, tank farms operating at 'limited capacity' after cyber attack
Norwegian Media Company Amedia Suffered a Serious Cyber Attack That Left Newspapers Unprinted
List of data breaches and cyber attacks in December 2021 – 219 million records breached
Cyber attacks
Suspected Chinese hackers breach four US defense and tech firms (unknown)
Crypto firm Bitmart loses estimated $200M in cyber attack (unknown)
Fake birth certificates generated in Hisar after health department hacked (unknown)
Cyber attack disables access to online servers for Oahu Transi (unknown)
Brazilian Ministry of Health suffers cyber attack and COVID-19 vaccination data vanishes (212 million)
BioPlus Specialty Pharmacy Service notifies those affected by cyber attack (unknown)
Long Island Jewish school’s website hacked with Nazi images, slurs (unknown)
Threat actors pose as pharmacists, get business associates to send them patient records (unknown)
US federal agency compromised in suspected APT attack (unknown)
Hackers attack Israeli hiking websites, leak personal information (3 million)
California man charged with hacking student accounts (unknown)
Australian man charged over Victoria Police security breach (unknown)
Massive data breach exposes wage and personal info of more than Albanian residents (637,000)
Another T-Mobile cyber attack reportedly exposed customer info and SIMs (unknown)
Cyber attack on one of Norway’s largest media companies shuts down presses (unknown)
Saskatchewan Liquor and Gaming Authority investigating Christmas Day cyber security incident (unknown)
Crawford County Assessor’s Office is the latest public entity to be hit by a cyber attack (unknown)
New Jersey’s Office of Information Technology suffers cyber attack (unknown)
Hackers steal, put up for sale Khyber Pakhtunkhwa police data (1,400)
The entire West, the Third World and NATO, its allies, are unbelievably unprepared to fight wars as they are being fought right now and have been for 18 months. I won’t even comment on the current, suicidal path the US Army is taking, and I am not talking about identity politics.
If there is conflict in Ukraine, you better pray to God the Russians or other state actors have more morals than I do. Given the current vaccination efforts, wiping out any force active in engagement is cheap, easy, and fast. Take a few canister of…something. And it wouldn’t be considered a biological attack, because there is legislation on it. Ain’t future warfare beautiful ?
I leave you with two quotes.
a “vortex of violence,” a free-for-all surprise devastation that is more driven by rage than any clear plans.
You know the cool thing about tech, hybrid warfare and post-pandemic world ? Anyone can engage on it, and shadow players are, quite literally, everywhere. Decentralized.
I noticed the increase in fertilizer prices last year but attributed it to fuel prices because production is such an energy intensive exercise.
Nitrogen was so expensive that many of us didn’t fertilize at all, which drove up hay prices, even without a bad drought.
So it’s more like China, Russia, and Joe Biduhn conspired to damage American agriculture.
The wheels are coming off!!
Train derails in north Alabama Dec 28th, 2021
https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2471617454241/limestone-county-train-derailment-causes-minor-issues-no-injuries