Australia under siege from multiple viruses
Lockdowns work, in reverse.
I have been trying to send at most 1 meaningful e-mail, otherwise publishing a post per day, but this might change for a while, things are changing fast, and I had annoy a small percentage of my readership, over most missing important or meaningful developments.
As many will be aware, not only have I forecasted 2020, but I have been tracking down the resurgence of old and new diseases alike.
First case of diphtheria detected in NSW this century
This isn’t the sole reason I decided to write this piece, this article was recently published in the media, per the title of this piece.
Australia under siege from multiple viruses. Expert says lockdowns have demolished our immunity
Australia is facing a devastating 'multi-demic' assault from a vicious cocktail of viruses attacking the nation, a top medical expert has warned.
The country's defences against a range of different diseases have dropped after Covid lockdowns left Aussies' immune systems untested by common viruses.
Now the rapid spread of killer bugs is being fuelled by cold, damp winter conditions, combined with staff returning to offices and commuting on packed trains and buses.
And that's on top of the new, more infectious Omicron variant BA.5 which is sweeping through the population.
'We're facing a multi-demic of respiratory viruses,' Sydney University infectious disease expert Professor Robert Booy told the Courier-Mail.
'There's three or four of them causing trouble - influenza, RSV, para-influenza, adenovirus, HMPV... there are a lot.
'Because were locked down for two years, the level of natural immunity dropped off against flu and Covid, so we have a lot of cases and deaths due to Omicron and the opening of a society with less natural immunity.
Since my readership is rather “selected” (my syntax, my writing style is done like this as a filter) I would expect most of you to pick up the lies and BS from the text. Of course, this has nothing to do with lockdowns. In fact, I will prove to you via science, math, and physics, which are harder than bullshit than other “hard” disciplines.
Critical regimes driven by recurrent mobility patterns of reaction–diffusion processes in networks
Reaction–diffusion processes1 have been widely used to study dynamical processes in epidemics2,3,4 and ecology5 in networked metapopulations. In the context of epidemics6, reaction processes are understood as contagions within each subpopulation (patch), while diffusion represents the mobility of individuals between patches. Recently, the characteristics of human mobility7, such as its recurrent nature, have been proven crucial to understand the phase transition to endemic epidemic states8,9. Here, by developing a framework able to cope with the elementary epidemic processes, the spatial distribution of populations and the commuting mobility patterns, we discover three different critical regimes of the epidemic incidence as a function of these parameters. Interestingly, we reveal a regime of the reaction–diffussion process in which, counter-intuitively, mobility is detrimental to the spread of disease. We analytically determine the precise conditions for the emergence of any of the three possible critical regimes in real and synthetic networks.
From a physics point of view, this work paves the way to a new paradigm of criticality in networked discrete reaction–diffusion processes, with an interplay of parameters defining different critical regions. In general terms, the detrimental effect of mobility on epidemics should be taken into account to ameliorate the policies towards epidemic containment, since whether or not it may happen depends on the particular demographic distribution and mobility patterns of the region under study
(you can read the entire paywalled paper here, don’t tell anyone though)
It is pretty simple to understand, under different dynamics of population density and movements, containment (lockdowns) are beneficial to viral spread, which the last 2 years and a few hours of observation should be able to tell anyone with some common sense.
Lockdowns work. In reverse. Pretty much like the vaccines. Which is the point of this piece. I have written extensively about how this would come to be, both on the Paradoxical Acquired Immune Dysfunction series, and marginally (you would need to connect the dots) on the Reverse Marek series. To make it simple for most people to understand. Two tweets.
The pathway above changed, there are many other pathways that branch off this one, but the basic idea and concept are still the same, and I covered all aspects of this extensively here (as a fairly simplistic rule of thumb, almost every single piece covering SARS-CoV-2 is directly correlated with the hypothesis).
Both of us (PAID was a two-person effort) were hoping the modulation (down-regulation) of the Toll-Like Receptor was transient, meaning it would last a short while and regulate itself, becoming normal within X amount of time. Perhaps I was overly optimistic, given there is a decent portion of the population taking 4 to 5 vaccine shots.
There are other dynamics at play, some I will cover, others I might not, most of the blame falls on the mRNA vaccines, but not solely by now, the viral infection itself has blame to be ascribed to, as minimal as it might end up to be. Before I could quite well tell what was vaccine-induced, and what was virus-induced.
Now it is an endless stream of confounding factors. One feeds the other, the virus feeds the effects of the vaccines, the vaccines feed the virus, and an endless cycle of evolution (and immune supression) ensues. As my pinned tweet states, you should expect many more of these diseases to come.
Vaccinated or not, as long as you take your supplements, decent diet + some exercise you are most likely fine. Might send another e-mail shortly, about the freaking virus and vaccine efficacy.
ahhh my home country and 96% vaxxed. bunch of sheep. crocodile dundee is long been replaced with a soy eating inner city leftie
Yep sticking with a decent diet and some exercise, probably put some sun exposure in there has worked for me so far ,happy to stick with natural immunity also. :)